Ryan Ohanlon
Wrexham has achieved a remarkable feat by securing three consecutive promotions, becoming the first team in organized British football history to do so—an achievement overshadowed by the billionaire co-owner’s biting comments.
Ryan Reynolds recounted his first press conference where he confidently declared, “We’re taking this team to the Premier League,” adding that people still aren’t laughing at the ambition.
The “Deadpool” actor, alongside Rob McElhenney, has been vocal about their Premier League aspirations since acquiring the club in 2021, which they documented in a series of Docusaries.
“We often say this, but I want to be in the Premier League, regardless of how crazy that may sound,” Reynolds told ESPN in 2023.
Public interest has escalated, with NPR earlier this year featuring a story that hinted at Wrexham potentially not only making it to the Premier League but also hosting Real Madrid in a Champions League match in the future.
I admit, I also posed the question: “Can Wrexham truly reach the Premier League?” After winning the National League, they are now just one step away from the Premier League, set to debut in the Championship against Southampton this Saturday. However, relegation to League One remains a concern.
While they dominated their lower-league rivals through significant spending, Wrexham now faces a very different challenge in England’s second tier, becoming a more vulnerable team both on and off the pitch.
What happens when you get promoted to the Championship?
In the last 12 seasons, 36 clubs have moved from League One to the Championship, with the following results:
• Remaining: 25 (69%)
• Relegation: 10 (28%)
• Promotion to Premier League: 1 (3%)
Excluding base fees, there’s a nine-fold increase in the likelihood of a club relegated from the Championship compared to one promoted to the Premier League. Still, there’s a slight resemblance to the only team that successfully made the leap in one season.
Under debut manager Kieran McKenna, Ipswich Town moved up from League One in 2022-23, earning 98 points and a +66 goal difference. They followed that with a second-place finish in the Championship, securing another promotion.
Wrexham was promoted from League One in 2023-24, finishing with 88 points and a +37 goal difference, and this past season they clinched another promotion with 92 points and +33 goals.
Wrexham is determined not to follow the trend set by Ipswich. CEO Michael Williamson confidently stated to ESPN during a tour in Australia last month, “There’s no doubt we’ll be able to arrive in the Premier League at some point.”
In the previous Premier League season, Ipswich secured four wins but finished 19th with a -46 goal differential.
Why is the Championship so different?
The Championship is a popular league where clubs spend significantly more than those in League One, as one exceptional season can lead to Premier League riches. In the 2023-24 season, Premier League clubs averaged £317.5 million in revenue, while Championship clubs made £39.9 million and League One clubs reported £9.4 million. During the same period, Premier League spending on transfers and wages totaled £289.5 million, compared to £48 million by Championship clubs and £9.8 million by League One clubs.
This translates to Premier League teams spending 95% of their revenue, while League One teams even exceed their income (101%) on wages. Consequently, only a few Premier League clubs are insulated from relegation threats and aren’t competing for the title, allowing some to maximize their spending efficiency. Meanwhile, every League One team strives to avoid relegation and seek promotion, leading to higher returns on player investments.
The Championship, however, is marked by wages and transfer fees averaging 121% of revenue. Clubs in this league often view the financial season as an opportunity to secure promotion, as the promotional system allows two clubs to automatically ascend, with another four vying in playoffs—creating hope for many teams.
Financial disparities significantly affect the Championship. Relegated Premier League teams receive parachute payments, enabling upper Championship teams to afford pricier rosters than those lower in the league.
For 2023-24, the highest revenue reported by a Championship club was £127.6 million, while the lowest was £16.6 million. In contrast, League One had revenues ranging from £21.3 million to £5.8 million. This trend reflects in wage expenditures, with Championship clubs spending between £107 million and £12.9 million, whereas League One ranges from £22 million to £4 million.
In the Championship, the largest budget dwarfs the smallest by over eight times, while in League One, the highest is about 5.5 times larger than the lowest.
What does this mean for Wrexham and their Premier League ambitions?
It will take some time for Wrexham’s financials for the upcoming season to be clarified. However, TransferMarkt’s player valuation offers a close approximation of the team’s wage expenditures and overall talent levels.
This summer, Wrexham signed eight players for an estimated total of €12.8 million, including former England international Connor Cody, Premier League striker Kiefer Moore, ex-Liverpool keeper Danny Ward, and midfielder Lewis O’Brien.
As of June 1, Wrexham’s squad valuation, the second-highest in the league, surged by 110.3% since the transfer window opened.
Despite this increase, Wrexham has the 21st most valuable roster in a 24-team league, valued at €28.7 million. Comparatively, the average Championship club boasts a squad worth €70.8 million. Leicester City, for example, has a roster valued at €28.1 million, while Southampton and Ipswich, fresh from the Premier League, exceed €180 million in roster value.
In the harsh reality of competition, Wrexham’s squad lacks the caliber necessary for serious promotion contention. While football is unpredictable, succeeding in playoff scenarios is easier when striving for sixth place rather than first. Yet, the club has shown resourcefulness in spending, making it one of the wealthiest teams with a robust roster in its previous leagues.
Nonetheless, Wrexham lagged 19 points and 20 goals behind Birmingham City last season. They seem closer to missing promotion than catching up with Birmingham, and transfer estimates indicate that Birmingham’s recent spending has elevated their squad’s value by €40 million. Several other Championship clubs possess equally valuable rosters.
Moreover, Wrexham faces limited opportunities for internal development, as most players are at or past their peak performance age, averaging 27.7 years old—making them the second oldest squad in the Championship.
So, what does this mean for the season ahead?
According to predictions from consulting firm Twenty First Group, simulations have Wrexham finishing 22nd in the league, with an expected goal differential of -9.6 compared to the league average. This aligns with their previous season, where they conceded fewer goals than Birmingham but scored less than seven other teams.
Currently, this assessment appears accurate. The squad’s age indicates a need for strategic scouting beyond the British Isles to unearth future talents if they hope to maximize offensive potential.
As it stands, Wrexham may find greater success by prioritizing defensive strategies instead of adopting an overly aggressive offense that risks poor performances. Minimizing weaknesses is crucial, as current data from Twenty First Group indicates a 3.6% chance of promotion and a 19% chance of relegation.
After three back-to-back promotions under Reynolds and Mac, Wrexham must face the reality that climbing higher is becoming increasingly challenging.
Fan Take: This story is significant for soccer enthusiasts as it illustrates the unpredictable journey of a club with burgeoning ambitions, capturing the imagination of fans worldwide. Wrexham’s challenges in the Championship could redefine their legacy and impact how smaller clubs view their own aspirations in the Premier League.
