With only two races left in the NASCAR Cup Series regular season, Tyler Reddick is making significant strides toward clinching a playoff spot based purely on points. Shane Van Gisbergen’s fourth win of the 2025 season has strengthened Reddick’s position, as it blocks new winners from taking a playoff berth.
Mathematically, three playoff spots remain open for the 16-driver field as the series heads to Richmond Raceway, followed by the season finale at Daytona International Speedway. Here’s the current situation following the Watkins Glen race.
Tyler Reddick holds a 117-point advantage. Despite losing five points on the cut line post-Watkins Glen, he slightly closed the gap on Alex Bowman, only falling two points behind 48th place. If he maintains this point difference at Richmond, Reddick will secure a playoff spot even if new winners emerge. In case of repeat winners, his spot is guaranteed, putting the 23XI Racing driver in a favorable spot.
Alex Bowman has a 60-point cushion. While comfortable, he must worry about the 26-point gap with Chris Buescher right on the playoff bubble. A surprise new winner at Richmond could jeopardize Bowman’s points standing, making it vital for him to fend off Buescher and hope for repeat winners to keep his position secure.
Chris Buescher, currently 34 points ahead of the cut line, benefited from his third-place finish at Watkins Glen, gaining 11 points on the bubble. As a bubble driver, he needs to close the gap to Bowman and push other drivers below the cut line out before Daytona. If he stays where he is in points, a win at Daytona could mean fighting off many rivals to stay in the playoffs.
Ryan Preece had a solid run at Watkins Glen but lost 11 points, making his chances to get in on points alone slimmer. Despite 211 previous Cup starts without a win, Preece may need to secure one in the next two races to advance.
Among the 19 drivers eyeing wins to qualify, defending Richmond champion Austin Dillon is one to watch. Despite a surprising win last year that didn’t get him into the playoffs, Dillon showed strong pace and may capitalize on a similar performance this season, along with his teammate Kyle Busch who also needs a victory.
Other notable drivers include Daniel Suarez, who led many laps at Richmond last year and whose team is enjoying good momentum, and Brad Keselowski, who impressed at Iowa and could be in contention again. Multi-car teams like Front Row Motorsport and Spire Motorsport face challenging playoff prospects, with only a strong finish at Daytona offering hope.
The largest team in a must-win predicament is Joe Gibbs Racing’s No. 54 driven by Ty Gibbs, a three-time Cup Series winner who is running out of time to join his teammates in the chase for the championship.
Fan Take: This playoff race intensifies the drama for NASCAR fans as established drivers fight off hungry challengers and surprise winners vie for their breakthrough moment. The next two races could reshape the playoff picture, promising thrilling competition and possible upsets that keep the sport exciting and unpredictable.
