I clearly remember feeling sorry for Novak Djokovic in 2009 or 2010 after being further defeated by Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. He was clearly a very good tennis player, but he was clearly destined to play in the wrong times.
Federer and Nadal won 25 out of 30 grand slam events between Wimbledon 2003 and the 2010 US Open, and Djokovic had caught one of five wanderings when he won the Australian Open Crown in 2008, but apparently they weren’t planning on getting many other opportunities. In another era, he could have probably won five or ten slams!
It turns out my numbers have been turned off a bit. Over time, Djokovic has mastered fitness, flexibility, backhand and serve, becoming the best match problem solver the game has ever seen. He won three of the four slams in 2011, forcing Big 2 to Big 3.
It is not entirely clear how the future unfolds. We get a lot of details right, but we love it horribly to others. Federer and Nadal actually combined 42 SLAM titles, each crushing the previous 14 records. However, he didn’t expect both to zip to 24 after Djokovic found both huge leads.
It seems that men’s games are now entering two other major eras. Carlos Alcaraz and Janik Sinner split the final 12 slams and nine slams. 83-6 To others. In the slam it is 2-2 each other and 37-1 against the field. The 22-year-old sinner and Alkaraz are 22 years old, and it’s easy to imagine a world where these two are each 30 years old and have more than 15 slam titles before bringing the 2030s closer to Djokovic’s record.
But it is thought that, like Federer and Nadal, the world of these two elites is being taken away, just as Djokovic’s surge creeped up on us. Again, the future is more ferocious than we tend to think of. It’s possible that the only future sinner or Alkaraz’s upheaval is a 16-year-old, but hardcore fans have even heard they’ve heard, but let’s talk about 10 players under the age of 23. How did they do for the biggest name ever? And what is most likely to hinder them?
Current ATP rankings: 5 | Tennis Abstract ELO Rankings: 11
Record vs Alkaraz and the Sinner: 3-5 (1-2 of 2025)i Record vs Top 10 Opponents: 8-16 (2-3, 2025)
Draper is already enjoying one big surge. He was 53rd in the ATP rankings following his second exit at the Australian Open in 2024, but he won two titles and reached the US Open semifinals (as expected, he lost to Sinner) and finished the year in the top 20. Now, despite missing two months with injuries, he is in the top five.
Draper has big serves, left-handed spins and well above average returns. Even better, he doesn’t have any obvious holes to fill his game. He is very well balanced, reaching the second week of three slams (only his home country slam, Wimbledon, escaped him), and his record for the Big 2 is almost 0.500. If his body were to work together, he could compete in many slums over the next few years. about it…
Maximum limit: health. He has suffered seven injured retirements in the past three years, including seven slams, and had to withdraw before the second round of the US. He fought shoulder and abdominal injuries in 2023 and he missed most of the past two months with hand issues – it felt like he was “closing a bit” in his words. You can only go up to Big 2 levels if you can stay on the court and build a rhythm.
Current ATP rankings: 6 | Tennis Abstract Ranking: 6
Record vs Alkaraz and the Sinner: 1-9 (0-3, 2025)i Record vs Top 10 Opponents: 7-18 (2-6, 2025)
The former Florida Gator had to learn to crush on tour after he entered the scene in 2023. And after the ups and downs in 2024, this year was pretty much UPS. He reached a pair of finals, winning the first 1000 level event in Toronto, and he is 12-0 in the slam against a player not named Sinner or Alkaraz. After starting the 21st in the ATP rankings, he came in sixth place.
Maximum limit: Return serve. Another large left-hander, Shelton has made his consistency this year, but he still doesn’t understand how to beat Big 2. Since beating the sinner in Shanghai in late 2023, he has dropped 15 consecutive sets to Italian, breaking just four times over that span, losing six almost no competition tiebreakers. That’s the same story for Alcaraz. He dropped 7 of the eight sets and only broke twice.
Statistics will quickly lead you to the main problem. Among the ATP Top 50, he is sixth in service points, winning 67.3% this year, right between Draper (67.8%) and the massive Giovannim Petosi (68.7%). But he is 47 days In response points, we won with 33.8%. Therefore, he played for 41 tiebreakers this year. Until the return game improves, he is not equipped to better avoid or actually win tiebreaks against sinners and Alkaraz.
Current ATP rankings: 11 | Tennis Abstract Ranking: 16
Record vs Alkaraz and the Sinner: 4-5 (1-1 in 2025)i Record vs Top 10 Opponents: 20-24 (4-2, 2025)
He is the same age as Alcaraz and has five career titles that he spent 20 months in the top 10. Even if it pales in comparison to the Big 2, it’s a solid rise. Rune raises the game in big moments for virtually anyone. The 10 players on this list have 10 wins in the Big 2, with nearly half of them. He also played and won more matches against top 10 competitions than anyone here.
Maximum limit: Win when you are supposed to. “My problem isn’t about beating those guys,” Rune told Donald McRae in his recent Guardian profile. “My problem is consistently getting deeper into every tournament and getting the opportunity to play more often.” That’s pretty much below that. Upon entering the US Open, he was 6-3 against top 20 opponents in 2025 and 2-3 against players ranked outside the top 100!
He pulled away from Alcaraz in the Barcelona final, winning 7-6, 6-2, but lost to 137 Emiliona Nava and 143 Nicolas Jarry at the French Open and Wimbledon respectively. He started a consulting relationship with Andre Agassi this summer, but his ceiling will be limited until he can properly concentrate on every match. A win over the occasional giant killer Boticvan des Andschulpe in straight sets in the first round was a good start.
Current ATP rankings: 16 | Tennis Abstract Ranking: 29
Record vs Alkaraz and the Sinner: 0-0 i Record vs Top 10 Opponents: 8-5 (4-1, 2025)
In March, Mensic won the event at 1000 levels, beating Draper, Taylor Fritz and Djokovic to win the Miami title, earning six tiebreakers in the process. He followed it soon with a bang on a straight set by Madrid’s Ben Shelton. He has risen from 67th to 16th in last year’s ATP rankings and will not be 20 until next week. He is 6 feet 5 and offers more aces than anyone in the ATP Top 50 (16.3%), creating more breakpoints than Shelton, Fritz and Rune. His advantages are immeasurable, but the poor Post Miami performance led him to a bit under the radar.
Maximum limit: Adjust according to the adjustment. When you enjoy the success of a breakout, it attracts the attention of the tour. Everyone will take you a little more seriously and learn how to get you down. The best players are those who adapt to it, but it may take some time.
Menshic is in its adjustment period. Since his victory over Shelton, he ranked five opponents above 31st, dropping 11 of the 13 sets to 0-5. Overall, he won just 12 matches in his first 10 post-Miami tournaments, but when the tour returned to his favorite surface, which is a hard court, he fell to 184th place qualifier Ugo Blanchet in the second round. He has plenty of time to understand things, but the increased pain is real.
Current ATP rankings: 45 | Tennis Abstract Ranking: 26
Record vs Alkaraz and the Sinner: 0-0 i Record vs Top 10 Opponents: 1-2, all 2025
One of the most evil forehands in the game, Fonseca started 2025 with 22 wins in 26 games and looked on the fast track to success. He wiped out Andrei Lubreviv in the Australian opening first round and beat No. 28 Francisco Cerundo to win his first ATP title in Buenos Aires in February. But like Mensik, Grind caught up with him a bit. He entered the US Open as he lost 10 of his last 18 matches, and since his victory at Lubrev, he is 0-6 against his top 15 opponents.
Maximum limit: He is still studying tactical textbooks. Fonseca is a highlight player of the social media era. Here – take a look at the video entitled “10 Minute Ultrasound Joao Fonseca Forehands.”
Something fun. He is hitting the winner of the forehand per point more than Alkaraz, and his possibilities seem to be limitless for that. But he’s still learning how to actually play tennis at this level – he doesn’t serve or volley, he comes to the net much, does not use enough kinds, mixes many drop shots as many players have learned in recent years. He fell on a straight set to Thomas Machuk (who would have made this list if he were a little younger) in the second round on Wednesday. He develops further, but now he knows that even the best forehand in the world will only take you so far.
Current ATP rankings: 10 | Tennis Abstract Ranking: 9
Record vs Alkaraz and the Sinner: 1-9 (0-3, 2025)i Record vs Top 10 Opponents: 13-29 (5-5, 2025)
Musetti has a beautiful, almost old school game, combining a diverse forehand with a Federer style one-handed backhand. If he finds rhythm, it can be devastating. Anyone who saw him filming two sets from Djokovic at the 2021 French Open could prove it. He reached the slam semi-finals in both grass and clay, and this year’s impressive clay court season pushed him to the seventh in the world.
Maximum limit: “Old school” also means “not modern.” Thanks to Nadal’s work with Federer, this tour taught me how to deny one-handed backhand with pace and height. At 6 feet-1, he has the most effective serve than anyone in the top 10. He won only 64.4% of his service points this year.
The world’s elite players have also learned that Musetti is not necessarily the most physical player. He retired or withdraws from six games since 2022, and since dropping his first two sets in 2021, Djokovic has been adjusted to win 21 of the 24 sets. Alcaraz won 17 of the 21 sets and 4 of the 4 of the 4 sets. The bounty and retro qualities that make watching Musetti enjoyable, seem to have stuck a rather hard ceiling into his game.
Current ATP rankings: 20 | Tennis Abstract Ranking: twenty three
Record vs Alkaraz and the Sinner: 0-3 (0-2 in 2025) i Record vs Top 10 Opponents: 7-11 (2-4, 2025)
Last year, the titles were in Bordeaux, Hamburg and Tokyo, and Phil surged to the top 20 at the age of 20. Like Fonseca and others, he still has room to grow from a tactical perspective – he’s 2-6 against his top 15 opponents this year (and always 10-14). But with his dynamic athletic ability and the required big serve and big forehand, he has all the obvious tools to go up to the top 10 or top 5 in the future. He beats Zverev twice and nearly beats Alcaraz at Monte Carlo this year. He has enough focus to avoid 10-1) against non-Top 70 players this year. All he needs is his body to cooperate.
Maximum limit: His body is not cooperating. He retired in the fourth set of the third round match at the Australian Open and after winning five sets of Jaume Munar in the second round of the French Open, he had to withdraw with what turned out to be a stress fracture in his back. He has only played two games since missing both Wimbledon and the US Open. That means he will oddly finish 2025 without dropping three sets in a match in any slam. Proper fitness will take him far, but that is difficult to achieve at times.
Current ATP rankings: 50 | Tennis Abstract Ranking: 52
Record vs Alkaraz and the Sinner: 0-0 i Record vs Top 10 Opponents: 4-3 (4-2, 2025)
If my own group text is any indication, Tien is already a hipster favorite. He is anti-Fonseca in some respects – he already seems to know most of the tricks of trade. Few people are excellent at changing the height, speed and depth of ground strokes. Of the players on this list, only Mensic has a better record against top 10 opponents. He defeated Danil Medvedev in five crushing sets at the Australian Open and defeated Alexander Zverev in a straight set at Asapulco next month, and he wiped out both Shelton and Lublev in recent months, and Djokovic briefly sucked the wind in the first round this week.
Maximum limit: Power and athletic ability. If Tien had it Any His game’s power compared to other top players, he will surely become the top 10 player of the future. But his limits are painfully obvious. He only wins 61.5% of his service points. This is the fifth lowest among top 50 players, and sometimes his backhand is at best a neutral weapon. He is good at enforcing mistakes, but you can’t always count on it to carry you, and Tien doesn’t create a simple point almost enough for himself.
Current ATP rankings: 21 | Tennis Abstract Ranking: 15
Record vs Alkaraz and the Sinner: 1-6 (1-2 of 2025)i Record vs Top 10 Opponents: 8-21 (3-5, 2025)
Lehecka will turn 24 in November. In other words, he only barely qualified for this list. But he has a great serve, his forehand is big and spiny. He is willing to serve, volley, diversify his tactics and beat big names. He defeated Nadal with clay, even if it was near the end of Nadal’s career. He has also reached the second week of three slams, including the 2023 Australia Open quarter.
Maximum limit: The elusive next step. At 6ft-1, he’s not a commanding figure and his backhand is just a decent one, so that might limit the ceiling. But at one point you ran out of chance to break through and he was held back by both injuries – seven retirements, and a few months on the sideline with stress fractures on his back in 2024 (not an unfamiliar issue on this list) – and missed the opportunity. This year alone, he lost a tiebreaker in the decision set to Fritz in Toronto, Alexandre Muller in Rome and Fallet Monfils in Miami. He is clearly 23 years old and not ancient, but he can’t afford to drop countless balls.
10. Giovanni Mpeshi Perricard (22)
Current ATP rankings: 37 | Tennis Abstract Ranking: 62
Record vs Alkaraz and the Sinner: 0-1 (0-0 in 2024) i Record vs Top 10 Opponents: 0-4 (0-3, 2025)
If you’ve seen Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard’s match for even five minutes, you know why he’s on this list.
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Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard sets Wimbledon records for a serve of 153 mph
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard will offer a 153 mph serve against Taylor Fritz in his first round at Wimbledon.
The man was able to absolutely erase the tennis ball, and his strength allowed him to surge into the top 40 just six months after the 160s in April 2024. His rise has been stagnant last year, but he is only 22 years old and his serve and forehand will provide him with a significant margin for error if he can only strengthen his weakest link a little.
Maximum limit: The worst return game you can imagine. Last year, only Sinner and Fritz offered MPETSHI or MPETSHI or more than 89.7% of services. However, only one of the top 50 players has scored less than 33.0% of his return points in the same span. 27.2%. He’s only broken 8% of the time. In other words, it’s almost the only service that is more than the people he faces. Until he improves in that respect, he is destined to function only as an annoying servebot that the ultimate champion must beat in a series of early tiebreakers in a particular slam.
