American Amanda Anisimova continued her second major final in the US Women’s Open final, facing defending champion Arena Sabalenka on Saturday (4pm ET, ESPN). Anisimova upset Sabalenka at Wimbledon in July, but No. 1 seed Sabalenka only dropped one set of the tournament.
Our experts place importance on how each one can separate their victory.
What can Anishimoba do to defeat Sabalenka?
D’Arcy Maine: Well, first of all, let’s go to sleep! After a quick turnaround was already made between his quarterfinal victory at Iga Swiatek on Wednesday and a semi-final match on Thursday, Anisimova took almost three hours to beat Naomi osaka in the early hours of Friday morning. It may sound stupid, but as Sabalenka spent four days off before the semi-final match (for Markea vondrusova, who is bored with injuries before the match), and early in the evening Thursday, Anishimova can definitely catch up in terms of rest and recovery.
But apart from that, Anishimoba knows what it takes to beat the number one in the world. She has done it in six of her nine career meetings and proved that she could do more than she could do on the biggest stage of the sport at Wimbledon earlier this summer. She must bring in her powerful blows, trademark attacks, incredible mental strength and willingness to win, and earn some free points on her serve, as well as making the most of the solid crowd behind her. I feel the first major title is within reach.
Bill Connelly: Continue the hunt. One of the secrets of Anishimoba’s success against Sabalenka is to score longer points, but she doesn’t win by waiting for Sabalenka to be ruined. According to the match charts in Tennis Abstract, Anisimova scored 12 of 18 points in a seven-shot rally in the Wimbledon semifinal, with 10 of 12 leaving the winner or forced error.
Back in her straight set, which won Sabalenka in Toronto last year, she scored 11 of 16 such points with five winners and forced errors. She fights Sabalenka so that she can do a few, but she is patient about it and when she finds the ball she is looking for, she makes the most of it. Try again and she becomes a Grand Slam champion.
Simon Cambers: Keep doing what she’s doing! This is an incredible tournament for Anishimoba and a very impressive reset after what happened in the Wimbledon Finals. Beating Swiatek must have given her a lot of confidence. She was equally impressive and mentally impressive to beat Osaka to reach the final.
Anishimova is leading Sabalenka 6-3 and beat her at Wimbledon, so she knows what she has to do. Her backhand is a match for everyone and if she continues to move as she is, she will fantasize about her chances. Of course, she was able to tense in front of the crowds of pregnant houses, but she feels more inspired and has nothing to lose in many ways. Just get out there and break the ball.
What can Sabalenka do to defeat Anishimoba?
main: Sabalenka keeps no secret that loss to Anishimova at Wimbledon crushed her. However, she vowed to learn from it and took a little time to reset. She seemed to have done just that and was introspective on their final game on Thursday. During their encounter at All Ingland Club, Sabalenka said he was questioning decisions during the match, resulting in an unforced error. She admitted that it must be changed to achieve a different outcome.
“I gave her many opportunities, and of course she played incredible tennis, but I feel like I have the opportunity for myself,” Sabalenka said. “I didn’t use them. Of course, obviously fighting, I feel that the key for me is just going there, but I trust my decision and chase the shot.”
Sabalenka has reached three major finals that face Americans every time this season, but is looking for his first slam title of the year. It weighs heavily on her, but she needs to adjust the additional pressure and simply focus on playing tennis for her dominant brand.
Connelly: She has to take some risks to her serve. These two have split four matches from each other since their start in 2024, and the difference between Sabalenka’s success in victory and loss is dramatic. With her two wins, she both earned at least 73% of her first-choice points and 58% of her second serve points. With her loss, she approached 60% of her first serve and earned less than 50% of her second serve.
In her victory over Anishimova at Roland Garros this year, Sabalenka landed the first serve and double folded over Wimbledon’s loss, but she offered far more aces and had far fewer breakpoints. She tends to score short points against Anishimoba, and there is no better way to set short points than big serves.
Camber: It sounds weird considering Sabalenka has reached the semi-finals of all four slams at least this year, but since she was in Australia earlier this year, it feels like she’s still not playing at all. Her serve looks a little fragile at times, with fewer than usual aces, and she’s coughing several double faults more than last year. She was pushed hard in three of her five matches here.
So, if she wants to win, she needs to serve well and serve at a high rate. She too needs to use her experience to deal with what becomes a partisan crowd. She’s at her best and knows that anyone can beat, so it’s about channeling all the energy she has into the last big push to get the job done.
Who will win?
Pam Shriver: I am discovering that this final challenge is predicted. Meanwhile, Anishimoba finishes late early Friday morning to defeat Naomi Osaka in the 35-game marathon, one match after defeating Sweet – feels that the gas could run out. Meanwhile, among Sabalenka’s Devils this year, between the second half of the majors at the hands of the Americans and the sense of fate that Anishimova will win the next major after Wimbledon’s defeat. You can claim either way.
If Anisimova can recover physically and emotionally from the semi-finals and semi-finals and hit the ball like in the third set of Osaka’s victory, Amanda Anisimova will become the third American woman to win the majors this year. It’s an attractive final.
main: Logically, this is a sabalenka to win. She is a defending champion, quite fresh, has quite a bit of experience on her side, and is probably more hungry than ever. However, there is something about Anishimoba’s running that feels like fate. After she has already achieved this tournament and done everything she has proven to herself and the world, I simply can’t choose a crowd favorite. Three sets of Anishimoba. (Why not?)
Connelly: I’ll go with Sabalenka. Mainly with the idea that someone won 23 Grand Slam matches in a year. do not have Taking the title will ruin my brain. Anishimoba is clearly in good agreement with her, but he has split four matches since Anishimoba returned to the tour – not exactly a one-sided matchup – and Sabalenka is so good that he can’t beat the slam this year. right?
That said, the longer this is, the more I prefer Anishimoba. Anisimova’s past seven losses (not including an injury retirement in May) were all straight sets. If you let her wander, she will punish you. It can be either a straight set Sabalenka or three Anishimoba. Give me the former.
Camber: For me, there are four things here, all of which make me think Anishimoba can and will win this. First of all, all the pressure lies in Sabalenka as the defending champion. Second, the crowd plays a big role, cheering on all the points New Jersey-born Anishimova wins.
Third, Anishimova’s 6-3 record against Sabalenka means she enters the match with conviction and confidence, knowing what she needs to do and that she has done it several times, including her recent fight at Wimbledon. And fourth, the way she rebounded from Wimbledon’s Final Double Bagel is not only very impressive, but it also gives her confidence to the point she thinks she will play in the Finals, as she did halfway through. It’s a fairy tale comeback and it’s very likely that it will happen.
