For months I kept the first 300 words on my laptop in a special feature titled “Verstappen is Ready to Create Something Special.”
The race began on the second round of the season, the Chinese Grand Prix weekend in March, when McLaren already seemed to have a clear advantage over Red Bull. However, further weaknesses for RB21 were revealed that weekend, leaving it drafted.
He then won in Japan, but at that point it seemed too obvious to complete such a piece, especially since Verstappen would arrive in Bahrain, just one point behind the championship lead.
By the time I returned to writing more about the Dutchman and his driving, following his extraordinary circumstances at the Spanish Grand Prix, he had grown from scoring points second only to Oscar Piastri in the race to effectively two points. His red fog moment ruined the argument I wanted to advocate at the time. His offensive strategy and impressive drive became insignificant and he also turned a solid score into a penalty.
And between the end of summer holidays, the chances of achieving that special performance have almost disappeared, considering he only won the podium in the next second round of Canada.
Still, I felt that there was a real chance that he could make a comeback over the past three race weekends. Max Verstappen still has the potential to win this drivers’ championship, and could achieve something all-around upset given the cars he’s been using for much of the season.
Of course, his chances of winning against him are still very high. Verstappen is currently 63 points behind Piastri in the Drivers Championship, with 174 points left by the final quarter of the season. However, since summer holidays, Verstappen scored 86 of the highest 100 points offered, despite failing to challenge McLaren at Zandvoort.
In Singapore, it would have been impossible to win without George Russell in the start, but despite wrestling with the unstable gearbox vehicle, Verstappen continued to put pressure on Mercedes in the middle of the race, defending him from Rand Norris, crossing the line just 5.4 seconds behind the winner.
As Red Bull team president Laurent Mekies said after Sunday’s checkered flag, the race weekend at Marina Bay proved that recent advancements were not unique to the low-downforce circuits alone. After upgrades in Baku and Singapore, Red Bull has exhibited the machines in better condition at all venues.
For McLaren, the low dederation of Monza and Baku, along with the unevenness and curb driving of the last two venues were not able to demonstrate their strengths. However, the performance gap has also been clearly narrowed, and there is a good chance that Red Bull will have a car that can at least get closer to it on most courses.
Verstappen still has championship potential, but with Red Bull’s recent progress and concerns about some of the upcoming courses, it means that the door is still open. Clive Mason/Getty Images
McLaren team president Andrea Stella is worried that COTA may not be the best circuit for the team, citing Brazil, Qatar and Abu Dhabi as the best circuits for Piastri and Norris. And if that prediction is right, Verstappen has two race weekends to close even further.
The 63-point difference naturally sounds big, but this number was 104 points just three races ago. It may be unlikely, but if he scores another 41 points from Piastri in the next three games, the gap will be 22 points towards Las Vegas, but McLaren is expected to struggle.
Yes, that sounds fantasy. But a year ago, Red Bull started running on a course where it was nowhere to be found, and who expected a point cut towards Monza?
And other power relationships at work reinforce the sense that Verstappen could still be a threat. First, Mercedes’ performance in Singapore shows that there are other teams that could potentially create a bigger point difference if things are right. This is true for both sides, and although there is a possibility that either Piastry or Norris could soon be cleared further, this is something that McLaren had little need to deal with for most of the season. Only three times did they fail to win in the opening 15th round, each of which was a solo event. McLaren currently has no wins in the past three games.
Due to McLaren’s internal circumstances, the two drivers are hoping to win their first title, balancing the need to beat their teammates with a long-term future in mind, with the desire to remain in harmony with the team’s desire to remain in harmony. The difference between the two is just 22 points, so McLaren can’t put weight behind a single car for now, as Red Bull did to bounce back last year.
Verstappen is looking to make an impressive comeback as a four-time world champion and has nothing to lose. The title is long ago out of his reach, and if it continues, he will have the success he has so far under his belt – that success will force him to experience far more pressure than the two McLaren drivers.
Norris Winning the season opening Australian MarkIt was the first time in 1,029 days that the Dutch had headered, and Verstappen has never been the lead this season. However, team members said that his attitude had changed in Baku, as if something had suddenly appeared to be chasing.
For McLaren drivers, it is clear that they are each one of the biggest rivals when it comes to the drivers’ championships, but the fact that Verstappen is also a small threat puts even more pressure. There aren’t many drivers in the racing world who are sure they’ll get a chance if they’re given a chance, but Verstappen is definitely one of them, and Piastri and Norris understand that they need to make sure they don’t give them a chance.
Verstappen is still a big outsider, but Red Bull appears to have made enough progress to get Verstappen inside the box on most of the circuits. His presence alone will put more risks on the weekly race weekend for the McLaren pair, and it still seems immeasurable to actually overhaul them, but can we really ignore him?
