For the first time in 15 years, F1 will have a title battle between two or more drivers, with Lando Norris, Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri battling it out for the championship at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
Norris had a chance to wrap up his first title in Qatar, but a fourth place finish with Verstappen’s win and Piastri’s second meant the trio had just 16 points, with 25 points available at the Yas Marina circuit.
Norris remains the clear favorite to win the championship, as he currently holds a 12-point advantage over Verstappen. This means that a podium finish will guarantee him the title, no matter how his other two opponents perform. It’s easiest to look beyond that simple equation and focus on what your rival must do to have a chance of stopping him.
A top-three finish is essential for Verstappen. Even if he were tied with Norris (12 points for 4th place), 4th place would not be enough to become the champion as he would lose on the countback from a 2nd place finish.
Therefore, for Verstappen to become champion, he must:
- If Verstappen wins the race, Norris will finish 4th or lower.
- If Verstappen finishes 2nd, Norris will finish 8th or lower and Piastri will not win.
- If Verstappen finishes 3rd, Norris will finish 9th or below and Piastri will not win.
The challenge is even higher for Piastri, who will have to finish in the top two to have any chance of becoming champion, given his 16-point gap with Norris.
For Piastri to win the title, he must:
- If Piastri wins the race, Norris will finish 6th or lower.
- If Piastri finishes 2nd, Norris will finish 10th or lower and Verstappen 4th or lower.
If Norris finishes inside the top five, Piastri will be automatically eliminated, but if the Dutchman wins the race, Norris could beat Piastri in fifth or fourth place and still lose to Verstappen.
