“We have a Derby winner.”
This phrase comes from the well-known story of trainer Bob Baffert entering the Santa Anita racing office for Justify’s debut back in February 2018. Unlike most Derby winners, Justify’s development was slower than usual, but once he broke out, he dominated. He won his first race by a staggering 9 ½ lengths and then went on to triumph in all six starts of his brief but impressive career. His Preakness victory at Pimlico, cutting through the fog, is unforgettable.
Watching Justify cruise home at Belmont with several lengths to spare, I couldn’t help but think, “This can’t be this easy.” Justify’s Triple Crown win was the first since Apollo in 1882 to snag the Derby without racing as a two-year-old, marking a historic moment in the sport.
Today’s sixth race at Santa Anita might offer another shot at breaking the “Curse of Apollo.” Bob Baffert brings three first-timers, along with a $1 million son of Derby winner Nyquist from the Shirreff family. This maiden dirt sprint over six furlongs mirrors the kind of race Justify won in 2018, setting the stage for the Southern California Derby Trail’s highlights.
Meanwhile, weather troubles east of the Rockies have halted most Thoroughbred events. The Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes takes place today in South Florida as part of the lead-up to the Grade 1 Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby starting gate. Unfortunately, undefeated two-year-old Ted Nophy, last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, is sidelined with a bone bruise, stirring speculation about who might take his place.
However, the key Derby prep action remains at Santa Anita today. Four top-tier horses with the makeup for the Derby could become key contenders in this year’s 3-year-old class.
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Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, Dirt 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds, $70,000 purse.
Duntov (9/2), Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo, Trainer: Bob Baffert
Duntov is the first of Baffert’s trio, sired by Maxfield, who had four major dirt route stakes wins in 2021. With changes in Santa Anita’s jockey roster, Emisael Jaramillo is a new addition riding for Baffert, starting from the rail post. Baffert has focused on Duntov’s gate work, with all recent workouts starting from the gate, suggesting strong readiness.
Comment: Worth considering.Cruisine in Cali (Date of birth January 30), Jockey: Thiago Pereira, Trainer: Steve Knapp
To win here, Cruisine must show more than in past work. Sired by Catalina Cruiser, a stakes winner on both coasts, the horse has a strong pedigree. Steve Knapp has had a 20% win rate from limited starters — but that might drop after today.
Comment: I disagree with that assessment.Coarse Speed (5/2), Jockey: Juan Hernandez, Trainer: Bob Baffert
Despite some skepticism about offspring from Beau Liam, this $250,000 purchase has justified its price with connections that inspire confidence. Hernandez’s booking by Baffert signals potential, and the horse’s performance aligns with Baffert’s top trainees.
Comment: Contender.Deep Track (12/1), Jockey: Mike Smith, Trainer: John Shirreffs
An expensive long shot at $1 million purchase price, Deep Track is a son of 2016 Derby winner Nyquist, continuing the California Derby tradition. Trainer Shirreffs, known for his 2005 Derby upset winner Giacomo, remains a steady hand.
Comment: A live long shot.Constitution Andy (January 30), Jockey: Victor Espinoza, Trainer: Mike Puype
Trainer Mike Puype prefers to get horses shaped up gradually and expects the same from Constitution Andy. With a pedigree that includes Candy Ride, there are Derby-type foundations, but expectations for a top run may be premature.
Comment: Pass.Ruler of Law (4/1), Jockey: Edwin Maldonado, Trainer: Luis Mendez
Ruler of Law recently finished second in his turf sprint debut just two weeks ago and has since shown steady workouts. Trainer Mendez is known for boldly bringing horses back quickly and could upset the favorite, though his recent win rate is modest.
Comment: Can win.Potente (7/2), Jockey: Kazushi Kimura, Trainer: Bob Baffert
The highest-priced horse in this field at $2.4 million, Potente is by legendary stallion Into Mischief. Unlike other Baffert entries, Potente’s training began late in November, making him the least experienced. However, should he win here, watch for a surge of hype.
Comment: Contender.Captain Shreve (3/1), Jockey: Kyle Frey, Trainer: George Papaprodromou
Captain Shreve has several advantages: a strong start, first time on Lasix, and impressive workout times. Alongside Ruler of Law, he could shatter pre-race expectations and challenge the favorites. His stamina over the full race remains a question.
Comment: Contender.
Sports Tribune wager
$1 Pick 3 (Race 5 start, $36): 2,5,7,9 / 3,4,7 / 2,4,7. Best of luck!
Fan Take: For Horse Racing enthusiasts, this race is crucial as it could signal the emergence of the next Derby star, much like Justify’s unforgettable journey. With the “Curse of Apollo” still looming and weather impacting East Coast racing, these West Coast events offer fans hope and excitement in an unpredictable season.
