Joe Espada has clearly expressed his intention to open the season with a six-man pitching rotation. While Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, Mike Burrows, and Tatsuya Imai appear to have secured four of those slots, the remaining two positions are still up for grabs.
With spring training just a week away, here’s a rundown of players to keep an eye on for those last rotation spots:
Spencer Arrigetti
Arrigetti’s 2025 campaign was plagued by injury, limiting him to seven starts and 35.1 innings. He suffered a broken thumb during batting practice and then experienced elbow inflammation, sidelining him for months. Thankfully, he avoided surgery and reported pitching seven bullpen innings recently, signaling readiness for spring training. At 26, while his MLB ERA has been above .87, the Astros hope he can approach his impressive second-half 2024 stats: a 3.18 ERA with a 29% strikeout rate and less than 8% walks.
Lance McCullers Jr.
In the final year of a $85 million, five-year contract, McCullers faces a pivotal season. Coming off over two years of recovery following flexor tendon surgery, he posted a 6.51 ERA in 55.1 innings amid three non-arm-related IL stints. Though flashes of brilliance emerged early last year—like his 12-strikeout performance against the Athletics—he struggled towards the end of the season. While expected to be fully healthy now, regaining his peak Cy Young-caliber form remains uncertain.
Jason Alexander
Claimed off waivers from the Athletics in May, Alexander was a saving grace amid the Astros’ injury crisis, producing a solid 3.66 ERA. Despite a hot start helping the team win 10 of 11 games, his underlying metrics — such as a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) one point higher than his ERA and a very poor 22% pursuit rate — cast doubt on his ability to replicate that success. His results may have involved some luck, making his future with the rotation uncertain.
Ryan Weiss
Previously playing in Korea’s KBO, the Astros invested $2.6 million in Weiss after an impressive 2.87 ERA and high strikeout rate overseas. His fastball velocity is average but reportedly can reach 97 mph, complemented by improved command seen during his time in Korea. After showing promise with a 3.77 ERA in the latter half of 2024 following a stint in independent ball, Weiss’ success this year will depend on whether he sustains that progress in the majors, despite inconsistent minor league numbers in the past.
AJ Bluebaugh
Making his MLB debut last April, Bluebaugh impressed with a 1.69 ERA over 32 innings, mostly as a long reliever. His changeup was particularly dominant, holding opponents hitless in 29 at-bats, and he showed effective pitching against both righties and lefties. However, his higher FIP suggests some fortune in his stats. The Astros may also be considering whether he can develop into a starter, since he faced 19 batters in his first two appearances, the most for him so far.
Colton Gordon
Gordon experienced his rookie MLB season with mixed results, posting a 5.34 ERA over 86 innings. At 27, he stands out for an exceptionally low walk rate, but his fastball is hit hard and often, with opposing batters slugging near .645 against it. Unless he can improve velocity or add an effective secondary pitch, sustaining a role as a starting pitcher could be a significant challenge.
Nate Pearson
Signed by the Astros after his release from the Cubs, Pearson is considered a high-risk, high-reward project. Once a top prospect, the 29-year-old reliever has struggled to achieve consistent major league success despite elite velocity—his fastball averages 97.6 mph with a slider generating a 37.5% whiff rate. Reuniting with Dana Brown, who was involved in his drafting, Pearson could emerge as a valuable asset if he harnesses his talent, even if primarily out of the bullpen.
Miguel Urola
MLB.com ranks Urola as the Astros’ top pitching prospect. His 2025 Triple-A season ended with a 3.88 ERA in 28 games and good strikeout numbers, yet his nearly 16% walk rate remains a concern. Though he performed better in Sugar Land’s major league-like environment, sustaining consistency without reducing walks will be vital for his major league success.
Fan Take:
This mix of veterans trying to rebound and promising young pitchers competing for rotation spots makes the Astros’ pitching staff one of the most closely watched entering the season. How these candidates develop could shape the future of pitching strategies and highlight the critical balance between health, analytics, and opportunity in modern baseball.
