Betting on the Daytona 500 is notoriously challenging. Over the past five years, NASCAR’s premier event has become increasingly unpredictable. William Byron is aiming for a third straight Daytona 500 win, yet in his recent victories, he barely held the lead.
In 2024, Byron only took the lead for the first time during a late restart, leading the final four laps—the only laps he led throughout the race. The previous year, he led 10 laps but didn’t take the front spot until midway through the final lap, where he skillfully avoided a crash in front and jumped from seventh to first.
Since Denny Hamlin’s dominant 79 laps led during his 2020 Daytona 500 victory—where he edged out Ryan Newman after Newman crashed near the finish—no winner in the past five years has led more than 21 laps. Except for Austin Cindric’s 21 laps in 2022, no winner has led more than 10 laps in the last four races.
Being in the right place at the right time is critical, but at Daytona and Talladega, there’s no clear “right” position. A driver could lead almost the entire race yet finish poorly or get caught in a wreck while leading. Nowadays, winning relies more on luck than just skill or having a strong car.
For those looking to profit from the February 15 Daytona 500, it’s wise to diversify bets rather than placing large wagers on just one or two drivers. Spreading smaller bets across a handful of racers, including some long shots, is a smarter strategy. Below is a look at some key contenders and their odds from BetMGM.
Favorites
Ryan Blaney (+900)
Still seeking his first Daytona 500 victory, Blaney might currently be the strongest competitor at Daytona and Talladega. He has claimed two summer Daytona wins and earned nine top-10 finishes in 21 starts at this track, though he also has nine DNFs—highlighting how unpredictable this race can be.
Joey Logano (+900)
Logano is expected to be near the front. He has led at least one lap in each of the last 14 Daytona races but has not won since the 2015 Daytona 500.
Austin Cindric (+1200)
Odds-makers favor Team Penske with three drivers as the top picks, and Cindric has the best average finish at Daytona among them, at 18.4. Along with his 2022 win, he also boasts top-five and top-10 finishes here.
William Byron (+1200)
Will Byron maintain his knack for being in the right spot? Since leading 24 laps en route to a summer race win in 2020, he’s logged 35 laps led over the past 10 Daytona races and has two wins.
Brad Keselowski (+1400)
Exercise caution with Keselowski, who suffered a broken leg in the offseason and is still recovering. Although he missed a recent crash, he’s expected to be medically cleared for the Daytona 500. Keselowski has 33 Daytona starts, one win, and eight top-10s.
Great Mid-Tier Value
Denny Hamlin (+1800)
Hamlin’s odds are longer due to recent poor finishes despite his status as a three-time Daytona 500 champ. He hasn’t placed higher than 17th in the last eight races here, but this likely reflects the unpredictable nature of Daytona rather than a loss of skill.
Bubba Wallace (+2200)
Wallace has crashed in three of his last six Daytona races but holds the highest average finish among active drivers at 14.4. He has five top-five finishes and twice finished second in the Daytona 500.
Notable Long Shots
Josh Berry (+3500)
Berry drives for Wood Brothers Racing, partnered technically with Team Penske. If you trust Penske’s chances, keep an eye on Berry, who has one top-10 in five Daytona starts.
Erik Jones (+4000)
Jones has consistently finished in the top 20 in the last five Daytona races and won here in 2018 with Joe Gibbs Racing.
Fan Take:
This unpredictable nature of the Daytona 500 makes it one of the most thrilling and nerve-wracking events for fans and bettors alike. The blend of strategy, skill, and sheer luck not only creates unforgettable moments but also keeps the sport fresh and exciting, reminding us why NASCAR continues to captivate audiences.
