For the past decade, Iga Swiatek has been the default favorite to win the French Open, which makes sense considering she won in 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2024.
However, times have changed in the world of women’s tennis. Not only has Swiatek lost the No. 1 ranking to Aryna Sabalenka in recent years, but she no longer has the edge on clay and will arrive at Roland Garros in 2026 without having won a title.
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So who? teeth Who are the favorites to win this season’s second Grand Slam?
No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka is a worthy favorite to win the French Open, but it’s been a strange clay court season for her so far. Almost invincible to all but the top players in recent years, she comes into Roland Garros after losing to opponents ranked outside the top 20 in Madrid and Rome, the two major clay court tournaments preceding the French Open.
Does Sabalenka just have something left in the tank for Paris, or is she suffering a slight dip in form? If she fails to win her first French title, the tournament will be wide open as many of the typical favorites are not playing their best tennis at the moment.
She may be world number one, but Aryna Sabalenka is still aiming for her first French Open title.
(Tim Clayton, via Getty Images)
Candidates for women’s final: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elina Svitolina
Svitolina, 31, from Ukraine, may be a better player now than she was when she became world No. 3 in 2017, nearly four years after giving birth to her daughter Sky. After reaching the Australian Open semi-finals for the first time this season, she just won the Italian Open trophy by defeating Elena Rybakina, Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff. The five-time Roland Garros quarter-finalist has a real chance of winning her first Grand Slam title and will have the French crowd on her side, given that her husband Gael Monfils will be playing his final game before retiring in Paris.
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Final American candidate: Coco Gauff
Last year’s champions had a bit of an uneven year, with some very good results (finals in Miami and Rome), despite some bad plays at times. Gauff has been making technical adjustments to her serve over the last year, but it’s still a little unreliable under pressure, and it’s unclear whether her game will be turned on or off on any given day. But Gauff is still competitive and should be able to win matches even when she’s not at her best, and should at least reach the quarterfinals here.
Three notable first-round matches
Iva Jovic (17) vs. Alexandra Ila
Just 18 years old, Jovic broke into the top 20 after reaching the quarter-finals in Australia to start the year and is poised to remain there for a long time with his elite ball-striking ability. Ira, a charismatic 20-year-old who introduced millions of Filipino fans to tennis, narrowly missed out on being seeded. This should be a real battle.
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Haley Baptiste (26) vs. Barbora Krejcikova
Baptiste, a 24-year-old from Washington, D.C., set a new career high this year thanks to big results such as the quarterfinals in Miami and the semifinals in Madrid, the latter of which she won in three sets over Sabalenka. Krejcikova’s rankings are currently in the 40s due to a foot injury she suffered earlier this year, but when she’s fit, she’s as good as anyone on tour, as evidenced by her 2021 French Open and Wimbledon titles two years ago.
Coco Gauff (4) vs. Taylor Townsend
Two of the most popular American women will compete for the start of the tournament. Interestingly, they have only met once in singles, which was in Charleston in 2019 when Townsend won 6-1 in the third set. Townsend is one of the best doubles players in the world, but she only ranks 72nd in singles, where Gauff is the clear favorite. However, Townsend has previously caused upsets in singles at Slam tournaments, and Gauff is not taking this matchup lightly.
Coco Gauff will enter the French Open as the defending champion after defeating Aryna Sabalenka in the final a year ago.
(Ian McNicol, via Getty Images)
Three potential matchups you’ll definitely want to see
Quarterfinals, Coco Gauff (4) vs. Amanda Anisimova (6)
Everyone was waiting for Anisimova to win her first tournament after reaching the finals at Wimbledon and the US Open last year, but she may have to go through Gauff and Sabalenka to reach the final. Unfortunately, they have only played once in the past three and a half years.
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3rd round Jelena Ostapenko (29) vs. Iga Swiatek (3)
The hard-hitting and often unstable Ostapenko has been Swiatek’s kryptonite for years, defeating her in all six times they’ve faced each other. Swiatek, a four-time French Open champion, would face a huge mental challenge in this matchup, even though it is his favorite tournament.
Quarterfinals Mila Andreeva (8) vs. Elena Rybakina (2)
Rybakina defeated her fairly easily on the indoor clay courts in Stuttgart earlier this year, but this time it’s been a back-and-forth rivalry with Rybakina’s aggressive game matched by Andreeva’s counter-punching and tactical maneuvers. Andreeva, who is only 19 years old, reached the semi-finals here two years ago and it won’t be long before she puts it all together and wins the tournament.
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Three big players who could go deep
Victoria Mboko (9)
The 19-year-old Canadian is not ideally prepared for this tournament, having been forced to withdraw from Rome with an elbow injury, a wisdom tooth removed, and a stomach illness. However, by reaching the third round of last year’s Roland Garros, she rose to the top 10 surprisingly quickly.
Dayana Yastremska (unseeded)
Although one of the more unstable players on the women’s tour, Yastremska is really good when she’s good. And she may be on that hot run after winning a minor title in Italy last week. Yastremska landed in a fairly open quarter of the draw and could have easily defeated 13th seed Jasmine Paolini in the first round.
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Royce Drink (without seeds)
She was the talk of the tournament last year, reaching the semifinals as the No. 361 player in the world. Boisson’s recent performance hasn’t been great, but her first-round opponent Anna Kalinskaya hasn’t played well at Roland Garros. If Boisson gets through it, the draw could be reopened and she could escape.
The French Open may be looking a little disappointing with two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz out with a wrist injury. Sadly, there will be no repeat of last year’s final, when he came back from two sets down and saved three match points to defeat Jannik Sinner in perhaps the best match of the decade.
But Alcaraz’s absence means an opportunity for either Sinner to complete a career Grand Slam, for Novak Djokovic to win his 25th major title, or for someone else to win a rare title of this magnitude in the era of Alcaraz and Sinner.
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Even if Alcaraz were healthy, Sinner would still be the favorite to win this tournament considering what has happened over the past few months. Since losing to Djokovic in the Australian Open semi-finals, Sinner has been in incredible form, winning 29 games in a row and sweeping Masters 1000 titles in Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome.
sinner should Win this tournament. But without Alcaraz on board, this could be the most pressure he’s ever felt with a winning streak and a career slam behind him.
Finalists: Jannik Sinner (1) vs. Arthur Fils (17)
Yes, I’m calling now. This would be a major breakthrough for the 21-year-old Frenchman, who has come back from a back injury last year to win a big clay title in Barcelona and reach the semi-finals in Madrid last month. Fils’ forehand is second to none and the Frenchman will be doing everything he can behind the charismatic future superstar. The bottom half of the draw is up for grabs as Alexander Zverev has had a bit of a problem in recent weeks.
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Last American potential winner: Lerner Tien (18)
Although he still has a lot to learn on clay, Tien has the right game style and the right coach (1989 French Open champion Michael Chang) to make things happen in Paris. He also had the right draw, landing in a quarter of the draw headlined by Daniil Medvedev, who famously hates clay, and Felix Auger-Aliassime, who has been in shaky form of late. I wouldn’t be surprised if the 20-year-old from Southern California makes another deep run following his Australian Open quarterfinal appearance.
Three notable first-round matches
Novak Djokovic (3) vs. Giovanni Mpesi Pellicard
Djokovic should be able to handle this matchup, but it’s a bit scary since the 6-foot-7 Mpesi Pericad is the biggest server on tour. It’s clear that Djokovic will do his best to help Mpesi Pellikar’s erratic rallies, but it’s unclear how the 38-year-old is doing. Djokovic has only played four matches since losing to Alcaraz in the Australian Open final, losing to Dino Prišmic in the first round in Rome a few weeks ago.
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Arthur Fils (17) vs. Stan Wawrinka
When this match was shown on the screen during the Roland Garros draw, the audience gasped. Wawrinka, 41, is making his final track run before retiring and there will be a lot of sentimental value in seeing him play for the last time in Paris, where he won in 2015. It would be great if Wawrinka could make this competitive given his recent performance, but sometimes great players of yesteryear put together one last big performance on this kind of stage.
Francisco Cerundro vs. Botic van de Zanzschulp
Now, it may be getting to this point, but there aren’t a lot of first-round matchups that jump off the screen this year. And if you like players who can crank as hard as they can from the baseline, these two are always worth watching.
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Three potential matchups you’ll definitely want to see
3rd round Novak Djokovic (3) vs. Joao Fonseca (28)
Tennis sometimes shows great battles between generations at Slams, and it would be fitting to see Fonseca, a 19-year-old with the makings of a future superstar, cracking up against Djokovic in his twilight years. Fonseca hasn’t won as much as most expected yet, but narrow losses to Alcaraz and Sinner earlier this year suggest he’s close to making a big breakthrough.
4th round Ben Shelton (5) vs. Francis Tiafoe (19)
These two Americans have had some great battles at the US Open, but how will they fare on clay? It would be great if they could find that, but both have ostensibly shown enough proficiency to progress this far. Tiafoe reached the quarterfinals in Paris last year, and Shelton won the ATP 500-level title in Munich last month.
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3rd round Gael Monfils vs. Daniil Medvedev (6)
Monfils, 39, has long been the face of French men’s tennis, but he is making his final run in Paris. While his career has perhaps not been as great as some people think – the 2008 Roland Garros semi-finals and the 2016 US Open are his best major tournament finishes – he is a true entertainer and gentleman, beloved by fans all over the world. A match with Medvedev, whose over-the-top antics make him a great heel, could be a hell of a scene.
At just 19 years old, Rafael Jodal is Spain’s newest talent.
(Tiziana Fabi via Getty Images)
Three big players who could go deep
Rafael Jodal (27)
Yes, Spain continues to produce incredible tennis players. And then the 19-year-old from Madrid suddenly appeared out of nowhere. After playing one season at the University of Virginia, Jodard turned pro and rose from outside the top 150 to No. 29 in just a few months. After quarter-finals in Madrid and Rome, he now has the perfect chance to make some noise at his first Roland Garros.
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alexander brox
Given the spelling of his last name – pronounced ‘Brock’ – the 21-year-old from Belgium stands out in every draw. But given his proficiency on clay, with recent wins over the likes of Casper Roode, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Talon Griekspoor and Flavio Coboli, he will be a big problem at Roland Garros for years to come. He’s a legitimate player and his second-round matchup against No. 8 seed Alex de Minaur, who has struggled since late February, will be very interesting.
Valentin Vacherot (16)
Arguably the best news in men’s tennis last year, the man was basically a journeyman who was struggling to make it out of the Challenger Tour until he was struck by lightning last fall when he qualified to win the Masters 1000 title in Shanghai as the 204th-ranked player in the world. But it doesn’t seem like a fluke. Since then, Vachelot has had some good results and looks poised to stay in the top 20 for a long time. The 27-year-old from Monaco could be a sneaky semi-final threat coming out of that wide-open Auger-Aliassime/Medvedev quarter.
