We’re heading back to Texas this week for the Charles Schwab Challenge, but Scottie Scheffler won’t be participating. But Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas and Ludwig Aberg are all in, giving solid star power to this team that is a staple of the PGA Tour schedule.
Fowler and Thomas are both players that our experts are watching, but multiple experts are watching two longshots, one a multiple tour winner and the other looking to win No. 1 on tour.
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Golf Digest’s betting panel consists of Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Andy Lack of Inside Sports Network, Ryan Noonan of Betsperts, your two authors, and Keith Stewart, CEO of Read The Line.
Related: Promising trends for Justin Thomas
scroll down See below for complete betting analysis for the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge.
Charles Schwab Challenge Picks 2026: Experts’ Complete Predictions
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, maymedia network analyst: Akshay Bhatia (35-1, bet 365) — A simple recipe to bet on Akshay this week. According to BetspertsGolf.com, he is the second-best player in the field over the past 36 rounds, the second-best putter, and the ninth-best approach. A great combo for Colonial. And the odds board has him languishing at 35 wins and 1 loss.
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Keith Stewart, PGA, Reed The Line: Rickie Fowler (27-1, FanDuel) — Rickie Fowler has three top-10 finishes in his last four starts. Ricky finished T-60 at Aronimink thanks to his putter. These greens are the toughest they will see all year on tour. Every other aspect of Fowler’s game was strong for most of 2026. He finished tied for sixth and T-16 in two of Colonial’s last three starts. It’s time for Fowler to go all the way. Rickey, who has averaged nearly six strokes better at Hogan’s home base in his past three trips to Fort Worth, isn’t the only Oklahoma native to win at Texas this week.
Ryan Noonan, Content Manager 4for4/Bets part: JJ Spawn (31-1, DraftKings) — Spawn’s game is perfectly suited to what has historically worked best at Colonial, and he has also played extremely well on correlated courses over the past few years, including a win at TPC San Antonio in April (+1.04 SG from tee to green). Spaun ranks No. 2 in my model this week, rating him as better than anyone else on the field in his tee-to-green play and ball-striking play in areas where it’s difficult to hit the ball on the tee or approach. Spawn also leads the field in GIR% when filtering courses with low GIR rates, difficult ball hitting, and small greens. This is exactly what we’re focusing on this week at Colonial. Stephen Hennessy, Golf Digest Editor-in-Chief: Harry Hall (40-1, FanDuel) — T-3 and T-6 in his first three starts at Colonial proves he loves Ben Hogan’s old team. He has already finished in the top 10 at this year’s Ultra Positional Waialae (RIP). Now Hall, wearing a Hogan hat, will join Mr. Hogan at a glass exhibit in Fort Worth. Christopher Powers, Golf Digest Senior Writer: Max Glaserman (60-1, FanDuel) — Glaserman had a big spike week with iron at Craig Ranch, but he’s not going to part ways there strictly on iron play. But in Colonial, it might (see Riley, Davis, 2024). T-9 at the CJ Cup is his best finish in 2026, and it’s the latest sign he’s back on the right track for his first dub. He has now won three years in a row, including a T-14 win at the PGA Championship. Maybe I’m too early on him and he’ll win with Rocket or 3M, but I’d rather try to get 60-1 early than the inevitable 30/25-1 later. Andy Luck, Inside Sports Network: Justin Thomas (+2350, DraftKings) — Justin Thomas showed serious signs after finishing fourth at the PGA Championship. Now, Thomas needs to get back on the club-down golf course and emphasize his elite short-to-middle iron play and short game. Past achievements: In 2026, a fourth winner was crowned and the first consecutive winner. Ryan Noonan and Stephen Hennessy both correctly picked Cameron Young to win the Cadillac Championship at +1250, giving Noonan his third win of 2026 (his second in a row after going 12-1 with the Fitzpatrick brothers in Zurich) and Hennessey’s second win, his first against the Farmers (60-1 over Justin Rose). Noonan also scored a 60-1 victory over Nico Echavarria at Cognizant. Let’s get on the train while we can. Listen to Golf Digest’s weekly betting podcast, “The Loop” (below). The show interviews some of the industry’s top experts (and in some cases tour pros) to help you place your bets and choose your ideal lineup. Be sure to subscribe to “The Loop” wherever you get your podcasts.
Charles Schwab Challenge Picks 2026: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
mayo: Sudarshan Yelamaraju (86-1, DraftKings) — The fifth-best player in the field in strokes gained/total, according to BetspertsGolf.com, with a nearly 100-to-1 record. It’s as if the book forgot about another position truck, T-5 at TPC Sawgrass. We have not forgotten, Sudarshan. Stewart: Taylor Moore (90-1, DraftKings) — Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course is a great competition venue at Colonial Country Club. Taylor Moore won the Valspar Championship (2023) and finished in the top 40 for the fourth year in a row. Each result improved week by week: T39-T20-T17-T14. Moore is an excellent close-range scorer who can drive the golf ball. When Taylor’s iron game works, that’s when Taylor can win. I’d like to expect a little more from Taylor this week, as he’s gotten seven hits from the field in his past two starts and has been trending upward for two months. at that time: Max Glaserman (60-1, FanDuel) — Max Glaserman’s statistical profile has been flipped lately, but in my opinion, that makes him a little more appealing. Glaserman’s baseline putting performance has always been the best in the game, and his handicap usually requires him to spike from tee to green. In his past few starts, it’s been the exact opposite. It was Glaserman’s third straight MC at Augusta, but he’s been great in his four starts since then, getting better and better each time. He followed up his T-14 at Aronimink with a T-9 at Craig Ranch last week, losing 0.63 strokes per round on the greens but leading on approach, gaining 2.8 strokes per round. He ranks fourth in this week’s field in SG/Tee-to-green over the past 16 rounds, and if he continues to show consistency there and can get his putter back, he could win again this week.
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Hennessey, Golf Digest: Chris Kirk (80-1, FanDuel) — The six-time PGA Tour winner is a past champion at Colonial, is in great shape with his irons, and is on his way to success here. If we put him on some of the putting surfaces that he’s always been good at, we can win big at 80-1. Powers, Golf Digest: Chris Kirk (80-1, FanDuel) — I was totally interested in Bud Corey, but Steve reminded me that he did WD and is now trying to piss off the people who hate me for it. sad! He tails Kirk as punishment, but he does so with confidence. Colonial is an ideal ballpark for Kirk, who won there in 2015 and recently started playing irons. Not enough: Andrew Novak (72-1, DraftKings) — Andrew Novak has tended to be quiet on his approach, gaining four strokes with irons at the U.S. Golf Championships and finishing 26th in two other tee-to-green categories. Colonial is a second-shot golf course through and through, and Novak’s skill set will really come into play. Related: Ludwig’s Problems, JT’s Rapid Growth, and Texas’ Worst Cities: 10 Things from the Colonial Era
Charles Schwab Challenge picks for 2026: Players we’re disappearing from
mayo: Ludvig Aberg (+980, DraftKings) — Show me something on Sunday and then tell me. Stewart: Robert McIntyre (20-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Over the past month, Robert McIntyre has ranked 124th in Strokes Gained Approach. Two-time champion Ryder Copper doesn’t understand his golden rules. That contradiction is now leaking into his short game and putter. Don’t ride the roller coaster on a course where consistency is valued. at that time: Robert McIntyre (20-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Considering how important it is to be successful at Colonial, Bobby Mack’s approach play this week is a non-starter for me. In his last four starts, he has lost an average of 1.29 strokes per round on approach, the third-worst mark in the field. This is a small sample, but his large sample data is no better. hennessyGolf Digest: Ben Griffin (25-1, FanDuel) — BG is playing better golf, but nowhere near his 2026 performance. This is an easy path considering the additional requirements of being a defending champion. Powers, Golf Digest: Russell Henry (18-1, bet 365) — I like Henry as much as the next person, but this number is way too low, especially considering he seems to be stuck in a bit of a post-Masters rut. Not enough: Robert McIntyre (20-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Something hasn’t been going right with Robert McIntyre lately, especially in his approach. McIntyre has ranked 111th in approach play in the field over the past three months, and Colonial is a golf course where the second shot is critical to success.
Charles Schwab Challenge picks for 2026: Combinations
mayo: Akshay Bhatia (-108) vs. Ryo Hisatsune (Coolbet) — This week we ride hard with Akshay. Stewart: JJ Spahn (-125) against Akshay Bhatia (Fanduel) — Hogan’s Alley benefits the best ball strikers. Spurn ranks in the top 10 on approach and around the greens. Spaun has been on a great run from tee to green in recent months. Ever since Akshay Bhatia’s India tour in late March, Bhatia’s ball-striking has remained the same. I think the driver was overseas, but the iron lost its stroke in three consecutive starts. At a venue where accuracy (really) counts, put the U.S. Open champion in the lead by Sunday afternoon. at that time: andrew novak (-104) Better than Ryan Gerrard (Pinnacle) — Novak ranks 7th in SG/T2G over the past 16 rounds at Colonial Comp courses and overall tee-to-green play. On the greens, he couldn’t hit the water even if he fell off the boat, but he’s had average performance on bentgrass greens the past two years, which can’t be said for most putting surfaces. Again, we are looking for continued success from tee to green and field average putting performance. Hennessy, Golf Digest: Alex Smalley (-145) vs. Gary Woodland (BetMGM) — Smalley is in one of the most consistent forms in golf. Woodland has been great this year, but hasn’t been as consistent over the past month after his breakthrough in Houston. We’re happy to ride on hot hands here. Powers, Golf Digest: Max Glaserman (-110) against Saheth Segala (DraftKings) — With Glaserman moving up the standings, I believe he could threaten to win this week. Saheth appears to be heading in a different direction, finishing 69th on the uncut Truist and T-60 on Aronimink. Missing: Andrew Novak vs. Rasmus Hojgaard (South Point) (-135) — Andrew Novak is one of my favorite bets this week, but this golf course will severely limit Rasmus Hegaard’s biggest weapon: distance. At Colonial, he will definitely take advantage of Novak’s approach play, which surpasses Huygaard’s driving. match results CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Power: 1-on-1 (B. Brown (-104) vs. Gim); Lack: 1-on-1 (Moore (-135) vs. Ventura); Mayo: 1-on-1 (Yager (+110) vs. Bezuidenhout); Noonan: PUSH (Blanchett (-115) wins over Coles). Stewart: 0-1. Hennessy: 0-1 match results2026 season (wins/losses): Stewart: 12-3-2 (up 7.7 units). Power: 13-6-0 (5.93 unit increase); Missing: 10-8-1 (0.05 unit decrease); Mayo: 8-10-1 (1.39 unit decrease). Noonan: 8-9-2 (down 2.25 units). Hennessy: 7 wins, 11 losses, 1 draw (down 4.6 units)
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Charles Schwab Challenge Picks for 2026: Top 10
mayo: Brian Harman (+650, FanDuel) — Dial up your big game hunter as the lefty thrives on short position tracks. Stewart: Justin Thomas (+280, DraftKings) — For Justin Thomas, trends are your friends. In his past three starts, Thomas has finished T-23, 13th and T-4 at the PGA Championship. All four major strokes gained categories are positive for JT. Always a great wedge player on the approach, Justin has made eight consecutive rounds with his putter in profit since switching to a flat stick. Grab #10 and wait for the Backdoor cover on Sunday. at that time: Justin Thomas (+280, DraftKings) — I think this is a good week to look at correlation courses. This is a big part of my model building this week, and the list of Colonial Comp courses screams Justin Thomas. He has wins at Southern Hills, Havertown, TPC Southwind, Waialae and TPC Sawgrass. He has also recently finished T-2 at Narashino and Innisbrook. Going back to the 2022 PGA Championship at Southern Hills, Thomas led per round in SG: T2G (+1.19) at the Colonial Comp course. His driver has been much more consistent this season, gaining an average of 0.32 strokes per round over the past 24 rounds, after being flat (-0.01) to the field over the past 75 rounds. He remains one of the elite short iron and wedge players in the world and that will be evident this week. Hennessy, Golf Digest: Rickie Fowler (+215, DraftKings) — I’m hoping to find a space for Ricky on my outright card, but if not, I’m going to use his stability to move money into another placement. Powers, Golf Digest: Tom Kim (+650, FanDuel) — A lot of sharpies loved TK last week, he hit the irons well but couldn’t make the putts. This week is a haven for accurate short knockers. With that in mind, we’ll quickly return to Kim’s Well. Missing: Keegan Bradley (+425, bet 365) — Keegan Bradley already had a runner-up finish at Colonial, and despite a disappointing season, the former Ryder Cup captain still possesses one of the best short games and is back on the golf course in the short position in the field. CJ Cup Top 10 Results Byron Nelson: Mayo: 1-on-1 (Johnny Kiefer +900); Hennessey: 1-on-1 (Max Glaserman +405); Everyone else: 0-on-1 top 10 2026 Season Results: Mayo: 6/19 (17.15 units increase). Power: 6 for 19 (10.25 units increase). Stewart: 5/19 (2.85 unit increase). Noonan: 5 of 19 (0.5 unit increase). Hennessy: 19-3 (down 5.6 units). Shortage: 3 out of 19 (6.65 units decrease) About our experts Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long-form and short-form content, and host of the daily talk show “The Pat Mayo Experience.” Mayo helped create Fantasy National, a golf statistics and research website, along with the Mayo Cup One-and-Done Contest race. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association’s Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three 2023 FSWA awards: Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, and Golf Writer of the Year. His 27 FSWA nominations are tops among all writers this decade and second all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @PME. keith stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional and a betting contributor and content partner for Golf Digest. Stewart is the co-founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the PGA Tour, LPGA and TGL. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter for the best betting narratives in the industry. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_. ryan noonan is the betting content manager for 4for4 and Betsperts Golf, writes articles under the Betsperts Group umbrella, and hosts several shows including Move The Line and the Betsperts Golf betting show. Find him on Twitter: @RyNoonan. andy ruck I’m a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who currently lives in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website dedicated to advanced analytics and predictive quality in golf course construction. He comes to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, The Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can be found on the golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports.
