Who will win the 2026 US Open? Scottie Scheffler aims for a Grand Slam, Rory McIlroy wants redemption

The 126th U.S. Open will be played at one of the nation’s most historic golf clubs, with players arriving at Sinek Hills this week looking to add their names to golf course lore. With past champions like Brooks Koepka and Raymond Floyd, Sinek Hills has always given its players everything they can handle in this week’s test and has almost certainly offered the same.

Although the characters in this story have changed, the script remains the same. The U.S. Open is the players’ third and penultimate opportunity to win a major championship in 2026. So far, with a successful defense courtesy of Rory McIlroy at the Masters and a working-class winner from Aaron Rye at the PGA Championship, few expected it earlier in the week heading into a crowded Aronimink Golf Club on Sunday.

Despite recent winners such as Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm, the U.S. Open tends to have more first-time winners than other major tournaments. That opens the door for players like Cameron Young, Ludwig Oberg and Tommy Fleetwood, who shot a final-round 63 to take second place the last time the U.S. Open was held at Sinek Hills.

This golf tournament may feature some unlikely heroes, but this championship will feature players who have been around the top of the golf world for the past five years, with world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler making headlines as he seeks his first career Grand Slam.

Schaeffler Slam

If Scheffler didn’t have this weekend marked on his calendar at the beginning of the year, don’t worry. Just about everyone in the golf world was doing that. The world number one will be aiming for a career Grand Slam for the first time, as the final round will not only be on Father’s Day as usual, but also on his 30th birthday. Talk about a potential celebration.

Scheffler remains the beacon of golf that all other players are striving to reach, and an argument could be made that they will have achieved it in 2026. He’s finished outside the top 10 in five tournaments this season, winning just one — for reference, that number was five in 2023 and three in each of 2024 and 2025 — but he’s been visibly more frustrated than usual on the golf course.

Still…he’s still definitely the No. 1 guy in this tournament. He finished in the top 25 in 32 consecutive tournaments, finishing runner-up at the Masters and first-round leader at the PGA Championship. He led in nearly every scoring category on the PGA Tour, and did so despite experiencing his worst strokes gained and approach season since 2021.

Perspectives and expectations are interesting in that sense. Scheffler’s consistent quality and ridiculous winning pace over the past few years has now become his standard, and if he doesn’t reach that, people will wonder what’s going on. Let’s find out the answer.

Essentially, the best player in the game has a chance to become the seventh player in the history of the game to win all four major championships. You don’t need to look too closely at the stroke count data to know what’s going to happen this week.

Number of attempts to achieve career grand slam

15 years later…

McIlroy’s goals for the rest of his career remain in flux, but a win at a U.S. Open setup like Sinek Hills is certainly among them. Winning at the rainy Congressional 15 years ago is still an accomplishment, but winning at hard, hard, hard Shinnecock Hills, where the club has a proud history, is what the Northern Irish want. It’s along the same lines as the British Open at St. Andrews, and the way the championship is won at St. Andrews is the same. of The golf course is just as important as the trophy itself.

This week will showcase McIlroy’s evolution 15 years later. His finesse game has been a welcome addition to his arsenal over the past few seasons, as he can play any game Shinnecock demands of him: small ball, big ball and everything in between. And it would be fitting if the change were completed at Sinek Hills, the venue where McIlroy last missed a spot at the U.S. Open.

Results since failing to qualify at the 2018 US Open

100 times in a row

Longevity is not valued in golf the way it should be. Reaching the highest ceiling, winning the most games in the shortest amount of time, and devouring major championships is often celebrated, but it’s worth celebrating the longevity of Adam Scott, who this week is aiming for 100 consecutive majors.

Again, Adam Scott has played in 100 consecutive major championships.

The only person with a longer streak than Scott is Jack Nicklaus with 146, and Scott actually had a real chance to win this championship last year. Scott is the only player to reach the century mark in consecutive appearances.

The last major championship Scott did not compete in was the 2001 U.S. Open. Some of you reading this may not have been born yet. That was the same year that Apple released the iPod. Not an iPhone, not even an iPod. This year, “Harry Potter” and “The Lord of the Rings” were released in movie theaters.

That’s a ridiculous feat and hard to wrap your head around. think about everything can There are things that can go wrong in 25 years, like injuries and dips in form, but everything has to go right to reach this goal. Well done, Adam Scott.

There are eyes in the hills

Shinnecock Hills, one of the original five charter members of the United States Golf Association in 1894, has only hosted the U.S. Open five times in its history, four of which have occurred in the past 40 years. The sixth edition will be held this year, but the seventh edition will have to wait until 2036, when both men’s and women’s championships will be held.

Shinnecock Hills may not have served as a championship venue as much as Oakmont Country Club (10 times), but its history remains unparalleled. Founded in 1891, it is considered the oldest golf club established in the United States. The iconic clubhouse, located on the top floor of the property, has remained largely unchanged since 1892.

Prominent architects like CB McDonald and Seth Rayner were responsible for the early shape of the golf course before Route 27 bisected it, and William Flynn was brought on board to create a new route while preserving some of McDonald and Rayner’s original holes and ideas.

Lately, Shinnecock Hills has earned a reputation as one of the U.S. Open’s toughest tests. The USGA’s settings contributed to this, as in both 2004 and 2018 players complained about the rough nature of the golf course.

In 2004, the USGA flooded the green during the final round of competition after players were unable to keep the ball on the green on the par-3 seventh hole. A total of 28 players failed to break 80 that day, and no player broke par.

His first-round scoring average in 2018 was 76.5. Over the weekend, Zach Johnson claimed he lost on the golf course, while Phil Mickelson lost his mind after hitting a moving ball trying to escape the hole, hitting two and carding 10.

US Open at Shinnecock Hills since 1900

amateur hour

Ben James is no longer an amateur as he earned his PGA Tour card by finishing high in the PGA Tour University Rankings, but if he still holds that designation, he would be one of the top three non-professional players to play in this major. In fact, if you include the No. 1 junior who also ranks 10th among amateurs, four of the top 10 will be ranked. (More on him later.)

James is no longer in the amateur ranks, having qualified for the U.S. Open three years in a row until the final round, but Jackson Koibun and Preston Stout are in the amateur ranks for the time being. The two met in the semifinals of the NCAA Championship, but the match was inconclusive (though Koibun was in the lead with one hole to go), as the big game had already concluded.

Stout may have lost that battle, but he won the individual title to end a season in which he won three straight Big 12 Championship titles. Winning three consecutive conference titles is exactly what Koibun achieved in the SEC while working his way through the college golf world.

This all-amateur match will be more fun to watch than usual, given the caliber of players with a simple (a) next to their names on the leaderboard, and what that could mean once they decide to go pro.

Notable players who won Low Amateur honors at the US Open

of longest youngest day of golf

While it may seem impossible considering his recent quality, it’s important to remember that Cameron Young is one of the players who had to pass the final cut to qualify for the 2025 US Open. The Players Championship winner started the season by finishing inside the top five at Oakmont and is now back among the top players in the game.

Stories like this are born every year from golf’s longest day, and this year they may center around long-time pros like Billy Horschel, Chris Kirk, Keith Mitchell, J.B. Holmes and Zach Blair who punched their ticket to Shinnecock Hills, but the focus is on youth, especially from Florida, where two 17-year-olds emerged with U.S. Open berths.

At the qualifying venue in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, three amateurs earned four spots, including the top two juniors Myles Russell and Giuseppe Puebla. Puebla won the medal with a 69-68 record, while Russell needed a playoff with a 71-67 record.

As Dewey Wilkerson once said, “The future is now, old man.”

Xander Schauffele’s winning streak

Although two major championship wins headline his resume, Xander Schauffele’s consistency in these championships should also be praised. He has finished in the top 10 in more than 50% of his major championship starts, including both so far this season, tied only by McIlroy and Justin Rose.

But in a strange twist of fate, although he has won the PGA Championship and the British Open, he has yet to win a more consistent major. Of course, this includes the U.S. Open, where Schauffele has yet to finish outside the top 15 in nine career appearances.

His run in this championship started off with a bang with five consecutive top-10 finishes, but has cooled off a bit in recent years with a truly uncontested run, although the end results were still good. He will bounce back from that small spurt and aim to finish in the top 15 for the 10th consecutive year, which would also serve as his first U.S. Open title.

Career US Open results

feast or famine

Trying to understand Bryson DeChambeau has always been a difficult challenge, but in this day and age, it seems like his stature is only going to get higher. The two-time U.S. Open champion is just a few years removed from his most recent title, but the past two years have felt like a lifetime to both DeChambeau and his fans.

DeChambeau continues to play LIV Golf and considers the future of his career amid the uncertainty of the league, but his performances at major championships have been poor. He has missed the cut in three of his last four major appearances, and although he opened the 2025 British Open with a 78, rounds of 65-68-64 put him within the cut line and in the top 10.

In fact, since his Game 2 win at Pinehurst, DeChambeau has missed more cuts (four) than missed cuts (three). But when he does get weekend tee times, it’s often later in the day and among the leaders. The first four rounds of this season’s major championship golf were sloppy, erratic and not good enough to compete with the best.

But he’s still Bryson DeChambeau, and that still means…anything is on the table.

Major records since 2024 US Open

Year of parity?

How about this?

• Seven signature events were held on the PGA Tour this season. A different player has won all seven times.
• Nine events were held at Rib Golf this season. A different player has won all nine times.
• There have been two major championships (and The Players…no, I’m not saying majors), and all three have been won by different players.

Are we in the year of parity? Because it feels like this year has become a normal year.

This follows in 2025, when Scheffler won two major championships, and in 2024, when Schauffele achieved the same. Major championships in recent years have been dominated by those who control the sport, but this year feels a little different, especially in a championship where six of the past seven champions and 13 of the past 17 champions have been first-time major winners.