Image via RFEF. Oyarzabal competes for the ball with Portugal.
Mikel Merino’s 91 andcent Spain slipped through the round of 16 revolving door just before being escorted into extra time by Portugal. He ran through the center of the pitch with perfect timing, and manager Luis de la Fuente looked like a genius in using not only the Basque midfielder, but also his provider, Ferran Torres. Not since 1950 have Portugal and Spain beaten each other by more than one goal in an official match, and whether De La Fuente’s side were conscious of the goal conceded or not, perhaps that close margin was part of the blueprint for the game.
If you go back through the archives of this somewhat sticky encounter, you’ll see more breaks, more chances and more shots from Spain. And you might remember the more interesting first half, before the slow rhythm took over. While soccer’s elusive “deserve” arbiter can be deceptive, Spain’s expected goal total of 1.78 feels deserving, and that doesn’t include the countless balls splashed into Portugal’s box.
But once again, if there was one thing that stood out about Spain’s performance, it was the relative lack of danger. Despite Nuno Mendes’ deflected shot and Bernardo Silva’s late header, there was little chance for Spanish fans to gasp in agony. Portugal gave La Roja more trouble than any of their previous four opponents, but in reality they couldn’t have done more. The expected number of goals achieved by Cristiano Ronaldo and others is 0.58. La Roja has now kept a clean sheet in five consecutive matches, although it fell short of Spain’s combined survival rate of 0.78 against Austria, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde.
However, there is no doubt that Spain’s future development will not leave much of an impression, as it will be their third time in five games. Sometimes they are conservative and sometimes they lack weapons. La Roja ignored even more passes into the same area, even though the vision of Dani Olmo appearing behind Portugal’s midfield was perhaps the best of Spain’s attack. Spain were reluctant to play the first pass they saw, and any pass they made in the middle was considered a kindness. Cowardice may be another word.
After the game, Rodri Hernandez scolded him, saying, “Anyone who thought we could win without suffering was wrong. We showed our maturity.” Perhaps that is the key difference between this Spanish team and the first edition we saw under coach de la Fuente. Nico Williams’ figure grows bigger with each passing game, and his lack of pace and directness is keenly felt in contrast to Lamine Yamal, who at times seems to feel he has to do it all. They were the face of a young, charismatic football team that was comfortable in shootouts and challenged to keep up with their opponents. According to Opta, just 36 of the 531 passes (6.8%) against Portugal were ‘long’, and the heavy switching from one side to the other has long since ceased, and that figure was 17% against England in the Euro 2024 final.
What was particularly jarring was that Mikel Oyarzabal, who prides himself on being punctual in the box, wasn’t even there when the teenage protege hit a few good balls into the box, even though he wasn’t even late. Opta’s passing map shows that Oyarzabal is deeper than both Lamine Yamal and Alex Baena, alongside Olmo, another midfielder. It was very strange that the Basque did not make any runs between the Portuguese centre-backs, but the only conclusion is that de la Fuente intentionally let him go deeper. His hunt was to take place after the turnover, and his job was to make sure Portugal’s counter-attack was meandering.
If only four favorites remain in the quarterfinals, Spain will face France, which has the biggest and most formidable weapon in the tournament. Aware that some of Spain’s own firepower has been reduced, an argument could be made that Spain’s more “mature” approach has talks with France in mind. Spain played comfortably against Austria and Saudi Arabia and were able to express themselves with a clear gap between the two teams, but in all other matches they definitely controlled a game with few chances. There is a reasonable argument that this might be Spain’s best bet to overcome Didier Deschamps’ seemingly limitless arsenal. Or maybe that’s overestimating Spain.
