Expectations for the 2026 Miami Dolphins were grim from the start: a revamped front office and coaching staff, a new starting quarterback and a roster many projected to struggle. As Week 4 approaches, Miami sits 0-3 and just lost its most explosive offensive weapon, RB De’Von Achane, to a season-ending torn ACL. Preseason forecasts put their win total around three or four — but that now looks optimistic.
Frank Schwab believes a completely winless season is improbable despite how poorly Miami has played. He notes the roster arrived largely devoid of NFL-caliber depth, and the team is spending more on dead cap hits for departed players than on those still playing — an unprecedented situation. With Achane out, Miami’s best playmaker is gone, and the offense’s upside rests precariously on QB Malik Willis and a thin group of pass-catchers. Schwab calls this likely the league’s worst roster, but thinks even bad teams usually scrape together at least one victory in 17 games.
Eric Edholm points out that no NFL team has ever finished 0-17, and only two teams ever finished 0-16, so he expects Miami to find a way to win eventually. He acknowledges the sting of losing Achane and the youth of the roster, but highlights the NFL’s frequency of surprising outcomes — upsets happen every season. With multiple winnable games left (including two each against the Patriots and Jets and a meeting with the Chargers) and seven home dates remaining, Edholm projects one or two wins rather than a historically inept season.
Jori Epstein digs into the historical record: only four teams since the 1970 merger have gone winless in a full season, and among teams that start 0-3, about 98.6% still manage at least one victory. Epstein warns against embracing a tanking mentality, arguing that losing streaks can erode culture and slow development of young talent; past winless teams didn’t quickly rebound into contention. She thinks the Dolphins will likely eke out a win or two and even cautions that they could pull off an upset against a playoff-caliber opponent if underestimated.
Jay Busbee uses a poker analogy to make the point that Miami, as the easy pick on many schedules, has to be assumed beatable — and that makes them everyone’s expected win. Still, Busbee expects the Dolphins to catch a break at some point: an off day by an opponent, a backup QB, or a sudden hot performance could produce a lone victory — maybe even an ironic one over Buffalo. He concludes that this organization probably needs a full teardown and a focused rebuild, with the 2027 draft a key turning point, while urging fans to manage expectations and find small comforts in the meantime.
Fan Take: This matters because a floundering Dolphins team reshapes the AFC landscape — it affects playoff races, draft positioning and the perceived strength of the division. If Miami truly collapses, it could accelerate roster rebuilding across the league and serve as a cautionary example about the cost of aggressive roster moves and poor cap planning.
Source: sports.yahoo.com
