The Houston Texans need to climb out of an early hole if they hope to reach the playoffs for a fourth straight season. An 0-3 start has them among five winless teams and behind the pace, but unlike other 0-3 clubs they aren’t being written off. Houston still has superior talent and a top-tier defense, and just last season they recovered from an 0-3 beginning to make the postseason.
That dominant defense hasn’t been at its peak through the first three games, and the offense has struggled too — yet there are solid reasons to expect a turnaround. Here’s why coach DeMeco Ryans still looks capable of steering the team back to the divisional round early in his head-coaching career.
Bad luck should even out
Last year’s slow start was driven by offensive problems and misfortune, and similar issues have cropped up again. TeamRankings currently rates the Texans (tied with the Chargers) as the unluckiest team in the league, and the early-game plays have often gone against them. A clear example: Kamari Lassiter’s dropped interception in Week 1, which would likely have sealed a win vs. the Buffalo Bills; instead, Buffalo turned the play into a go-ahead touchdown. Removing that missed takeaway would have left Houston 1-0 after beating a team many regard as the NFL’s best.
NFL data expert Tom Bliss highlights just how skewed Houston’s luck has been: opponents’ dropped catches, missed kicks and fumble recoveries have all tilted away from the Texans, and in terms of win probability added they’re the worst in those categories by nearly a threefold margin. Bliss also identified Spencer Shrader’s 53-yard go-ahead field goal for Indianapolis as one of the season’s most consequential luck-driven plays — it decided Houston’s 19-17 loss.
Nico Collins could jump-start the offense
Offense was the bigger issue in the last two defeats — six points vs. Cincinnati and 17 in Indianapolis won’t carry the team even with the defense improving. The Texans only need steadier production from the offense because the defense can keep games within reach, but Houston’s recent outputs (combined 23 points and low rushing totals) haven’t been good enough.
A major reason for the offensive drop-off was the absence of wide receiver Nico Collins, who hurt his hamstring in Week 2 practice and forced Houston to alter its game plan. Collins led the team in Week 1 with seven catches for 75 yards and a touchdown; with him on the field the Texans scored 31 points against the Bills. The numbers are stark: with Collins playing, Houston averaged about 31 points and 381 yards per game with a slightly positive EPA per play (+0.05); without him they’ve averaged roughly 11.5 points and 298.5 yards with a negative EPA (-0.22). According to Next Gen Stats, C.J. Stroud completes far more passes and gains far more yards targeting Collins than any other receiver, even though Collins has played only about 60% of offensive snaps over the past two seasons. Stroud also struggles when pressured, so getting Collins — his reliable downfield option — back could help him release the ball sooner and improve accuracy. Collins has returned to practice and appears likely to play Sunday against Dallas.
A manageable remaining schedule
After finishing second in their division last year, the Texans drew a fairly soft 2026 schedule. Two of the tougher matchups are already behind them, and the rest of the slate ranks among the easier stretches in the league by opponent win percentage and ESPN FPI. Teams like the Chargers and Packers underperforming has made the path even more favorable than it first looked.
By record, the Giants, Browns and Steelers are among the tougher six remaining opponents, but none are viewed as elite playoff threats. Remaining opponents currently above .500 include the Jaguars (twice), Giants, Browns, Ravens, Steelers and Eagles; those at or below .500 include the Cowboys, Titans (twice), Chargers, Colts, Commanders and Packers. If the Texans’ offense resembles last year’s version once Collins is healthy, there are stretches on the schedule where they could string together multiple wins. While replicating last year’s nine-game run would be a tall order, Houston should be favored in more games than not moving forward.
Fan Take: This matters because Houston’s season could flip quickly — a returning Nico Collins and regression toward normal luck would make the Texans a dangerous, familiar playoff team again. For NFL fans, their rebound would be a reminder that early records can mislead and that roster quality plus a favorable schedule can reshape a team’s trajectory fast.
Source: www.cbssports.com
