The week started out looking like a turnaround, but late results sank my against-the-spread picks. I was 6-3 going into the late games and finished 7-7, dropping my season ATS mark to a rough 50-68-3. My straight-up selections were much better at 10-4, improving that season total to 72-48-1. Now I’m trying to bounce back on ATS after backing some underdogs this week.
(All lines from DraftKings; times listed in ET)
Jacksonville Jaguars (-10) at Baltimore Ravens — Thursday, 8:15 p.m. on Amazon Prime
With Lamar Jackson out, Baltimore is a different team under backup Joe Fagnano. Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville’s running game are clicking, so I like the Jaguars to win on the short week.
Pick: Jaguars 27, Ravens 16
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at Atlanta Falcons — Madrid on Sunday, 9:30 a.m. on NFL Network (stream: Fubo)
Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ offense have been explosive lately, while the Falcons have struggled to keep pace. Expect big plays from Cincinnati in this international game.
Pick: Bengals 33, Falcons 21
Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers
Carolina’s defense has been in disarray, leading to the firing of DC Ejiro Evero, and their offense has been banged up. After a clutch win over Kansas City, the Broncos should have an easier time against the Panthers’ defensive and OL woes.
Pick: Broncos 26, Panthers 20
Dallas Cowboys (-6) at Indianapolis Colts — Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (stream: Fubo)
Dallas needs a rebound after a bad home loss and gets a favorable matchup versus a struggling Colts team dealing with internal issues. Expect Dak and company to get the offense going again.
Pick: Cowboys 31, Colts 17
New York Jets (+9.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs return home off two road losses; the Jets blew a late lead against the Raiders. Kansas City should bounce back behind their run game, but New York’s offense should keep it respectable.
Pick: Chiefs 24, Jets 17
Detroit Lions (-7) at Miami Dolphins — Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (stream: Fubo)
The Lions face a tough trip after wins at home, and Miami has improved, but Tampa’s defense? (note: original referenced Miami) Detroit’s offense can score in bunches; Jared Goff should have a big game.
Pick: Lions 30, Dolphins 13
Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints (-1.5)
The Browns play back-to-back road games after losing to Pittsburgh, while the Saints come off a bye. Cleveland’s offense was poor last week, so I expect a low-scoring game that New Orleans will edge.
Pick: Saints 17, Browns 14
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (stream: Fubo)
The Giants have the division lead and a week off, while the Eagles are coming off a tough road loss and are struggling in spots. Rivalry intensity and Philly’s defense will keep it close, but the Giants pull away late.
Pick: Giants 22, Eagles 20
Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders (+5.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (stream: Fubo)
Despite the long trip, the Rams have stabilized recently. The Commanders’ defense played well in their rally, and Jayden Daniels will keep Washington competitive, but I expect Los Angeles to win a tight one.
Pick: Rams 28, Commanders 24
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers (+4.5)
Both clubs have underperformed; Houston is off a bye and the Chargers are still searching for consistency. I think the Chargers’ defense keeps this close, but Houston should squeak out a win.
Pick: Texans 19, Chargers 16
Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers (-10) — Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on Fox (stream: Fubo)
Raiders on the road again and the 49ers coming off a bye gives San Francisco a clear edge. With the Raiders’ defense struggling, Brock Purdy should have a big passing day.
Pick: 49ers 31, Raiders 17
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (+3.5) — Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on Fox (stream: Fubo)
This figures to be a defensive slugfest despite capable quarterbacks on both sides. With the Packers rested from a Thursday game and Jordan Love making plays late, I’ll take Green Bay in a low-scoring finish.
Pick: Packers 19, Patriots 16
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-12.5) — Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on Fox (stream: Fubo)
Seattle is coming off a humbling home loss, while the Cardinals are changing QBs to Gardner Minshew after a win in Dallas. Still, Seattle’s defense should be hungry and dominant at home.
Pick: Seahawks 30, Cardinals 13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6) at Chicago Bears — Sunday, 8:20 p.m. on NBC (stream: Fubo)
Chicago impressed in their road win over Seattle but could have a bit of a letdown. Tampa Bay’s defense and run game have been solid, yet I expect rookie Caleb Williams to make clutch plays late for the Bears.
Pick: Bears 24, Bucs 21
Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at Minnesota Vikings — Monday, 8:15 p.m. on ESPN/ABC (stream: Fubo)
This is the marquee matchup of the week with two strong teams. I think the Bills will attack Minnesota on the ground like Detroit did recently; a better Bills defense and a controlled rushing approach should be enough to win.
Pick: Bills 21, Vikings 14
Fan Take: These picks matter because they highlight how injuries, short weeks and coaching changes can swing NFL matchups — factors fantasy owners and bettors need to monitor closely. The outcomes also show the league’s parity: any team can beat another on a given week, keeping the season unpredictable and exciting for fans.
Source: www.cbssports.com
