The 2026 French Open was anything but uneventful. The men’s field in particular exploded in a completely unexpected way, with the trophy on the line for all eight participants. Roland Garros quarterfinals.
Only three of the top five seeds (men’s and women’s combined) have advanced to the quarterfinals, which begin on Tuesday. That alone is surprising enough, but nothing is more surprising than the away favorite for the men’s title, world number one Jannik Sinner, who lost in the second round to Juan Manuel Cerundro.
The next day, Novak Djokovic lost in two sets to Joao Fonseca, who was chasing his 25th Grand Slam title. Fonseca parlayed that victory into a magical run in Paris, where he will face Jakub Mensik in the quarter-finals on Tuesday.
Let’s take a quick look at the latest odds for both brackets going into the quarterfinals.
2026 French Open Men’s Odds
alexander zverev | +120 |
Joan Fonseca | +370 |
Flavio Cobolli | +600 |
very happy auger | +650 |
Rafael Jodal | +800 |
Jakub Mencik | +1800 |
Matteo Berrettini | +2000 |
mateo arnaldi | +2200 |
Zverev is the clear favorite at the moment, entering the tournament in second place with the odds of lifting the trophy. Aside from Sinner, it’s hard to argue with the idea that Zverev is the favorite to win the tournament. It’s hard to forget Zverev’s ability to melt and explode when things start to go a little south, but he’s the most skilled player left on the field.
Zverev’s path to the final first goes through Jodal, who won a grueling five sets in both the third and fourth rounds, while Zverev has only reached the fourth set once this tournament. Zverev will then face the winner of Mensik and Fonseca (Fonseca is -224).
Best second chance — Fonseca +370: The smart money may be on Zverev, but what’s the fun in just doing a straight choke in both brackets? There was one head-to-head match between Zverev and Fonseca, with Zverev winning in a hard-fought match at Monte Carlo in April. Fonseca showed he can go toe-to-toe with Zverev on clay, even if he doesn’t win. With wins over Novak Djokovic and Casper Ruud, Fonseca feels like the tournament’s destiny. Rather than riding with Zverev in a tournament where the favorite is proving to be unsafe, I’m going to gamble a little and take him at +370.
2026 French Open Women’s Odds
Arina Sabalenka | -135 |
Marta Kostyuk | +450 |
Mila Andreeva | +500 |
Elina Svitolina | +750 |
Sorana Cirstea | +1500 |
diana schneider | +2800 |
Anne Kalinskaya | +2800 |
Maya Chwalinska | +3500 |
Sabalenka is the clear favorite to win. She has four Grand Slam titles under her belt and will obviously add her first French Open title to that list. Despite all of Sabalenka’s advantages, it’s hard to forget her disastrous loss to Coco Gauff in last year’s final. That’s when everything fell apart, and Sabalenka looked for every possible excuse to explain away any outcome other than her failure.
Sabalenka has a clear path to the final, as she will face Schneider in the quarterfinals and the winner of Kalinskaia vs. Chwalinska in the semifinals. It’s a much easier route than the second most popular route, Kostyuk.
Best second chances — Sabalenka -135: It’s not an exciting story, but Sabalenka’s path to the finals looks easy, so she should be much fresher than her opponent at that point. Andreeva is a solid pick at +500, but I worry that anyone will be exhausted by the sheer rigors of having to get through the tough parts of the bracket compared to Sabalenka, who has a chance to win in straight sets in the quarterfinals and semifinals.
