Ryan Ohanron
Unless something surprising happens, Ousmane Dembélé is on track to win the Ballon D’Or.
The Paris Saint-Germain forward tallied 21 goals and six assists in Ligue 1, leading PSG to a league victory by 19 points. He also contributed eight goals and six assists in the Champions League, helping PSG win the final with five goals.
PSG’s ascent as the world’s top team coincided almost perfectly with Dembélé’s transition to a central role in 2025. Therefore, he doesn’t just accumulate statistics and trophies; he has a compelling narrative. It’s evident that Dembélé is a key factor in PSG’s dominance.
Will voters be influenced by Chelsea’s 3-0 win over PSG in the Club World Cup final? Given that Jorgiño finished third in 2021 and Dani Carbajal came in fourth last season, Palmer could potentially challenge Dembélé, but he still remains the frontrunner.
A more intriguing question is: who *should* win the Ballon D’Or?
Back in March, I wrote about “How Ousmane Dembélé became the world’s best soccer player,” referencing a pivotal moment after PSG’s victory over Liverpool in a penalty shootout. However, the intent of the Ballon D’Or is not solely based on such moments. Four years ago, the criteria changed from a calendar year to a period from August to July.
This shifts the focus to which player excelled during the 2024-25 season. Let’s delve deeper.
Assessing the Entire Season
It’s interesting to reflect on various facets of the season, especially considering many view PSG as the clear top team, even after the recent Club World Cup final.
By December 1 of last year, PSG had one win, one draw, and three losses in their first five Champions League matches, having scored three goals and conceded five. At that point, they risked not advancing from the league phase. However, they rebounded to win 10 out of their next 12 European matches, scoring 35 goals and allowing just nine.
This slow start meant PSG faced Liverpool in the Round of 16. The second leg at Anfield was one of the best matches ever, with the outcome hinging on some close calls.
If Liverpool’s Buck Jarrel Cuanza’s header had gone in instead of hitting the post, would the narrative of this season have drastically changed? If they hadn’t lost the shootout, Dembélé might not have been the standout he is now, and PSG wouldn’t be in the conversation for major awards.
Interestingly, few were discussing PSG’s players until that game took place.
The European sports media collects opinions monthly, with sports journalists voting for the best XI. While the Ballon D’Or voting is insightful, it often favors trophy-winning teams, so the European Sports Media’s findings provide a more consistent view of the top performers throughout the season.
Since 1995, Lionel Messi has made 88 teams, Cristiano Ronaldo 51, while no other player has exceeded 31 selections.
As of February this season, only Achraf Hakimi from PSG made it to the monthly team, not Dembélé. In contrast, Liverpool had 18 selections! It’s worth noting that Liverpool had both goalkeepers, Allison Becker and Khaoimhin Keleher, selected. Barça and Real Madrid players also featured prominently.
As a result, PSG players may not receive the acknowledgment they deserve. According to July’s *World Soccer Magazine*, here are players who received at least 20 individual votes this season:
(1) Mohamed Salah, Liverpool: 43
(2) Virgil Van Dijk, Liverpool: 42
(3) Robert Lewandowski, Barcelona: 32
(3) Kylian Mbappé, Real Madrid: 32
(5) Ramin Yamal, Barcelona: 26
(5) Achraf Hakimi, PSG: 26
(7) Harry Kane, Bayern Munich: 24
(8) Ousmane Dembélé, PSG: 23
(9) Trent Alexander Arnold, Liverpool: 22
(10) Scott McTominay, Naples: 21
(11) Cole Palmer, Chelsea: 20
In comparison, Liverpool faced a tough season trying to gain Ballon D’Or recognition. They dominated the Premier League and Champions League until mid-March but faced bad luck during the league phase and were eliminated early from the Champions League.
Who Else Deserves Consideration for the Ballon D’Or?
If we evaluate goals and assists in domestic leagues, one name stands out: Mohamed Salah. Yet, counting penalties as regular goals and treating assists the same way can skew perceptions.
To adjust this, penalties should have less weight than regular goals, perhaps worth 0.21 goals based on expected conversion rates. Similarly, adjust assists using predicted assists (XA).
After adjustments, Kylian Mbappé emerges as a strong contender. However, this analysis doesn’t include matches where these players faced off against each other.
Incorporating Champions League performances leads to the following top 10:
Rafinha is a standout, but his stats might inflate his perceived value at Real Madrid. As for Lewandowski, he wasn’t the top producer on his own team, while Bayern’s overall situation affected their players negatively.
Among forwards, we now consider Rafinha, Dembélé, and Salah. Rafinha stands out as the most productive after adjustments, while Salah remains highly influential.
Defensively, Virgil Van Dijk received considerable recognition, ranking among the highest for most votes in the ESM this season.
But Achraf Hakimi deserves mention as well. Using adjusted contributions, Hakimi outshines his peers, showcasing his defensive prowess while also being effective offensively.
Dembélé vs. Rafinha vs. Salah
Ultimately, Dembélé’s impact seems strongest for the award, but all four players present compelling cases. Your choice may depend on how you interpret award criteria—still quite ambiguous.
Hakimi’s performance outstrips that of other defenders; if averaged across positions, he might warrant greater appreciation. Dembélé, meanwhile, has been essential to PSG and excelled in critical moments.
Despite minutes played not being as high as others, what he achieved in fewer matches highlights his effectiveness. Thus, when tallying my top 10 votes, I’d position them as follows:
(1) Ousmane Dembélé, PSG
(2) Mohamed Salah, Liverpool
(3) Rafinha, Barcelona
(4) Achraf Hakimi, PSG
(5) Virgil Van Dijk, Liverpool
(6) Ramin Yamal, Barcelona
(7) Robert Lewandowski, Barcelona
(8) Harry Kane, Bayern Munich
(9) Pedri, Barcelona
(10) Julián Alvarez, Atletico Madrid
Here’s to an exciting off-season that kicked off last week!
Fan Take: This discussion around the Ballon D’Or is crucial for soccer fans as it not only highlights individual brilliance but also reflects the evolving criteria of excellence in the sport. As clubs invest in analytics and player development, such narratives could shape how future talent is recognized and celebrated.
