The regular season has concluded, and NASCAR Cup Series drivers are vying for playoff positions, with those outside the cutoff line desperately seeking wins to secure their spots. Victory guarantees a playoff berth unless the number of different winners exceeds available slots. Sixteen playoff positions are allotted first to regular season race winners, with tiebreakers decided by points.
Currently, there are 12 winners, and the regular-season champion will likely be among them. Unless five new winners emerge—or four winners plus Tyler Reddick, who is trailing by 53 points, claim the regular-season title—all winners are expected to make the playoffs.
The remaining six races take place at Dover (1-mile concrete oval), Indianapolis (2.5-mile flat oval), Iowa (0.875-mile oval), Watkins Glen (road course), Richmond (0.75-mile oval), and Daytona (2.5-mile draft oval). Watkins Glen, Richmond, and Daytona are considered the most probable tracks for upset winners, which means at most three will be new winners.
Drivers guaranteed a playoff spot include multiple race winners Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, and Shane van Gisbergen, all with three wins each. Drivers who are very likely to qualify if they win again include William Byron, Chase Elliott, Ryan Branny, Chase Brisco, Rothshastain, and Joey Rogano.
Drivers Austin Cindric and Josh Berry are on the bubble, separated by just six points, and face pressure to win again or rely on points to advance. Tyler Reddick, though unlikely to win again, holds a 115-point cushion over Chris Buescher, the next closest driver among winners.
The points bubble consists of Chris Buescher (plus 34 points), Alex Bowman (+32), Bubba Wallace (+3), Ryan Blaney (-3), and Kyle Busch (-37). These drivers must be cautious, especially if new winners claim playoff spots.
Eighteen other drivers will likely need a win to qualify or require outstanding performances combined with luck. Notably, eight of these drivers have yet to win a Cup race, including Gibbs, John Hunter Nemechek, Carson Hocevar, Todd Gilliland, Ty Dillon, Noah Gragson, Riley Herbst, and Brandon Jones.
At Dover, some bubble drivers have prior success, including Busch (3 wins), Keselowski (1 win), and Bowman (1 win), with Stenhouse, Suarez, and Jones also having strong finishes there.
Fan Take: This race-to-the-playoff drama adds intense excitement for NASCAR fans, highlighting every race’s importance in the final stretch of the season. The mix of established winners and hopeful newcomers keeps the competition unpredictable and thrilling, which is great for the sport’s growing fan base.
