Only one horse out of the 20 competing in the Kentucky Derby can achieve lasting fame by winning the race. Some participants continue to excel on dirt tracks—such as Sierra Leone, who turned a loss at Churchill Downs into a Breeders’ Cup Classic win, also securing a impressive victory at the Whitney Stakes at age four. However, most horses take different routes after that first Saturday in May.
The Final Gambit was a favored long shot for the 2025 Kentucky Derby. In its last prep race, it showed a strong finish on the synthetic track at Turfway Park in the Jeff Ruby’s steak, finishing fourth under the twin spires, which rewarded superfecta bettors. A month later, Final Gambit failed to perform in a small field at the Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill Downs. After success on synthetic surfaces, trainer Brad Cox tested Final Gambit on turf. Although it fell two lengths short in the Belmont Derby, there was hope for improvement at Saratoga. Despite running a strong race alongside another Derby competitor, Tiztastic, Final Gambit finished fifth in the Saratoga Derby.
This Saturday’s top race features Brian Hernandez guiding With the Mystic to what could be an incredible win in the 2024 Kentucky Derby, a victory that took Mystik Dan a full year to achieve again. After winning a Grade III stakes at Churchill Downs and running in the prestigious Stephen Foster race, Mystik Dan failed to perform as hoped. Trainer Kenny McPeek has since chosen to try a different strategy.
For the first time, the 2024 Kentucky Derby will be held on turf this weekend at Arlington Million. The race has been relocated since the Chicagoland track closed in 2021, moving this year’s quarter-mile Grade I stakes event to Colonial Downs in Virginia. Mystik Dan is in peak form with Brian Hernandez skillfully steering him close to the rails. Although this post position suits him, he’s not the favorite— that distinction goes to Integration, who nearly clinched a Grade I win in a recent race.
Will the Kentucky Derby winner succeed on the grass surface? Find out this Saturday evening around 5:54 PM EST.
| Post Position | Morning Line | Horse | Jockey | Trainer |
|—————|————–|—————–|——————-|—————–|
| 1 | 9/2 | With the Mystic | B. Hernandez Jr. | K. McPeek |
| 2 | 30 | Time Song | L. Saez | J. Thomas |
| 3 | 12 | Vesting (IRE) | J. Castellano | M. Maker |
| 4 | 20 | Runaway Storm | A. Achard | E. West |
| 5 | 7/2 | Cairo (IRE) | B. Curtis | A. Haines |
| 6 | 4 | Fort Washington | J. Alvarado | C. McGaughey |
| 7 | 8 | Grand Sonata | T. Gapphion | T. Pletcher |
| 8 | 8/5 | Integration | J. Velazquez | C. McGaughey |
Fan Take: This thrilling shift to turf racing marks a significant evolution for the Kentucky Derby, showcasing the versatility and adaptability of top racehorses. For fans, it promises exciting new dynamics and intense competition, signalling fresh strategic opportunities and growth for the sport.
