The US Open kicks off on Sunday, with both defending champions Arena Sabalenka and Janik Thinner in a draw. Will Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz meet again at the Finals, as they did at both the French Open and Wimbledon? Or can Novak Jjokovic advance to the finals?
Iga Swiatek won Wimbledon earlier this summer, but there may be momentum on her side. Or will Kokogoff, the 2023 US Open and the 2025 French Open champion, win everything in New York?
We voted experts for their picks – and the best betting tips.
Who do you think will win the women’s singles title?
Pam Shriver: Swiatek appears to have solved the mysteries of the faster court by winning Wimbledon in a dominant way. Her ground strokes look more compact. This helps her to control in faster conditions. Swiatek’s footwork was perfect and her serve was improved. She wins her second US Open Championship and a seventh major single title.
John Isner: Take Swiatek. It’s a very chalky pick, but she’s playing best now than anyone else and found her game very well on the fast court.
D’Arcy Maine: It’s difficult to discuss with momentum, and perhaps no one has it this summer than Swiatek. Since her incredible performance at Wimbledon for her sixth major title, she has turned her season around for a total of odds. She became Cincinnati champion on Monday and never dropped a set on her way to the trophy.
She appears to have rediscovered the dominant hard coat shape that propelled her to the 2022 US open title, and she may be more confident than ever. She already gained some experience with Ash at the mixed doubles event this week, where she earned the runner-up honor with Casperude.
Bill Connelly: Sabalenka was way too good this year do not have Winning the Slams – she is 67-13 a year, and she is 41-5 overall in the last seven slams. Swiatek smokes hot, but Sabalenka remains the most reliable thing in sports.
That being said, Sabalenka’s draw is solid, with potential matches awaiting halfway between Leila Fernandez (2021 finalist), Clara Towson (the only player to beat Swiatek in the last two months) and Elena Rivakina (who beat her in a straight set in Cincinnati). Sabalenka needs to find the fifth gear pretty quickly, but trusting in the power of consistency, he ends up going to the defending champion.
Simon Cambers: From the moment Swiatek changed her return position against Rybakina at French Open, she regained the confidence that made her the best player in the world. Her victory at Wimbledon helped coordinate her footwork with manager Wim Fisett, but she picked up where she left off and won in Cincinnati. She is happy and confident, and it spells out big trouble for her rivals. Sabalenka is slightly soaked from her shape last year, Gauff has had problems and Rybakina is still looking for consistency. The Madison Keys could be threatening, but this makes Swiatek seem like he’s losing.
Who do you think will win the men’s singles title?
Schreiber: Given the dominance of the majors over the past two years, it is impossible to choose anyone other than thinner or alcaraz. But both have early challenges with the sinners set to play Alexei Popilin in the second round and Alcaraz, who faces Riley Opelka in the first round.
I feel I don’t have a final for Sinner Alkaraz, but it’s hard to predict where the agitation will occur. I intend to stick to the sinners to protect his title and remain the best hardcourt player on the planet.
Isner: sinner. When fitted 100% he is the best hardcourt player in the world.
Connelly: Thinner has won 21 straight wins in a hard court slam, and if he scores one of the three championship points against Alcaraz in Paris, he will win the final four slams and head to New York. That’s ridiculous.
Thinner has the highest win rate in the world in both this year’s serve (71.5%) and returns (42.8%). He achieved ridiculously high cruising altitudes, and until another potential match against Alcaraz in the Finals, his toughest opponent may be a bug he was fighting in the Cincinnati Finals last week.
Camber: As long as he recovers from the virus that forced him to quit in that final, the sinner is a strong favorite to me. Yes, Alcaraz had his numbers for a while until the sinner defeated him at Wimbledon, but even before that, the sinner always seemed to have an advantage on the hard court. Nothing has changed in that respect. The title certainly lies between the two, but Alkaraz’s highest point is probably higher than the sinner, but the sinner’s consistency could see him in another slum. Ben Shelton has a game that causes great upsetting, but perhaps not two, so the sinner is a man.
main: After the Cincinnati Finals, I was leaning after coming out before the draw A little bit Towards Alkaraz. However, the sinner’s virus symptoms are likely behind him when play begins, with Alkaraz having a particularly brutal draw – starting with Opelka in the first round, followed by a potential meeting with Danil Medvedev in the fourth round, followed by Shelton and Djokovic of Samis in the semi-finals.
I think this is the title of a sinner. His draw isn’t exactly easy, but he’s been pretty positive and healthy, when he’s seen as invincible this year, including last week’s Cincinnati. As Simon pointed out, even if Alcaraz reaches the finals, Thinner will have a hard court advantage and will become his favorite match.
Can players outside the top 10 be surprised in the next two weeks?
Schreiber: Victoria Mboko is my player outside of the top 10. In the history of women’s tennis, the fast-improving teenagers gained shares of major titles, from Chris Ebert and Tracy Austin in the 1970s, to Steffy Graf and Monica Ceres in the 1980s, to Serena and Venus Williams in 1999, respectively. Who can forget how Maria Sharapova, the returnee of the International Tennis Hall of Fame, avoided everyone to win the 2004 Wimbledon title at just 17 years old? Mboko has the power and presence to run deep in the majors.
Based on feelings and desire to see the American guy win the majors again, I’m going to choose Francis Teafoe and have another deep run in the US. Seeing my companion Marylander matures more every year, and adds more variety to all his court games, Tiafoe will be a threat to ride his New York wave of popularity and rip off some major upsets.
Isner: Medvedev. He’s been playing poorly lately and has been tough in the first round, but if he can get through it… take a look. and Veronica Kudametova. She has a lot of momentum from Cincinnati and I really like her game.
Connelly: Get on your hot hand and go with Mboko. Certainly, she has played five slam games so far and won’t turn 19 until Tuesday, but if she saw her in Montreal, she saw someone who could solve the problem on the spot, where almost no one could blive a tennis ball on the tour. She defeated four former slam champions and ran Gouf straight off the court, 6-1, 6-4. However, in both the semi-Semis against Rybakina and the final against Naomi osaka, she had to start the match firmly and fight after dropping the first set. It was jarring and impressive that she pulled it apart. She’s ridiculously mature for her age, she can wear down her enemies completely with the blows in her body, and I’m not going to bet on her running in New York.
Camber: On the male side, it is very convenient that Rude recently dropped out of the top 10 for these purposes. The Norwegians seem to have a lot of fun in mixed doubles, and his Poland is there. As a former runner-up, he showed he can play on this surface. His confidence is much higher than he was at the beginning of the year, and if he goes deeper, that wouldn’t be a real surprise.
At the women’s event, Karolina Man Verba and Osaka are the players they see. Muchova once again regains his top form and as he passes Williams in round one, no one will want to face her. Osaka also appears to have rejuvenated after the change in coaching. With her favourite surface at her favorite event, she was able to ride the roll.
main: My immediate answer was Mboko – and to add to the already eloquent case for her here, the open crowd in the US will love her – but to change that, the unseeded Emma Radukanu once again appears to be on the crisis of something special. After facing qualifying in the first round, she has a tough draw (probably facing 24-seeded Kudamataoba in the second round and 2022 Wimbledon champion Rivakina, but she has proven she can beat top players this summer. Ask Sabarenka. After a close fight at Wimbledon in July, Radkanu pushed the world number one into a three-set tiebreaker in a match that lasted more than three hours in Cincinnati. I haven’t seen her win this tournament or go deep in week two, but the 2021 champion looks poised right away for another career breakthrough. Will that happen again in New York?
Betting Tips
Odds at the time of publication. For the latest women’s tournament
And the men’s tournament Visit Odds, ESPN BET.
Who is choosing your woman to win?
Pamela Maldonado: Considering the form shift since Roland Garros, swiatek (+250) It makes sense. After losing to Sabalenka in Paris, Swiatek was dialed in, winning the Wimbledon title and 15 of his last 17 matches, looking more comfortable than ever on the hard court. Her playing style fits with Flushing Meadows. Mentally, she goes back to determining points instead of responding, and her balanced draw helps. If she has been hugging her serve since July and maintaining her break conversion rate, Swiatek has the cleanest path to the title.
Second sense of smell: Sabalenka (+275). The defending US Open champion entered the world’s No. 1 tournament, reaching the final in five straight hard court grand slams, including victory at the Australian Open (2023, 2024) and the 2024 US Open. Her power game is extremely difficult to defeat on a hard court. Sabalenka hasn’t won a major this season, losing in the finals at both the Australian Open and the French Open before losing in the semi-finals at Wimbledon, but she’s 23-4 on hard court this season, and it feels like she’s set to break through in New York.
Who is chosen to win by your man?
Maldonado: Sinner (+105). He deserves his favourite status, but with warnings. His efficiency is elite, helping 91% of his time absurd by earning and holding 79% of his first serve points, leading the field with total points. He is much more stable than Alcaraz when it comes to double faulting and minimizing errors, but this is important in a tight set. Stylistically, his flat, low ball strikes make it difficult for us to fit perfectly on the slowly open surface and hit him. If he is perfectly healthy, the control of the sinner and the forces from both wings separate him from the field. However, if the disease is still present, +105 moves risk from value to risk faster.
Smell: sinner The past two seasons have been incredible on hard courts, winning three hard court grand slams (2024, 2025 Australian Open, 2024 US Open) in that stretch, combining a 65-4 on the surface in 2024 and 2025. Thinner also won three ATP 1000 level events on hard courts in that range. This season, Thinner has held all three major finals, winning the Australian Open and Wimbledon. He played the final of the recent ATP 1000 event at the Cincinnati Open before retreating due to illness. If we are fully healthy, sinners should be a clear favourite for us to repeat as open champions.
What is another bet that stands out on the female side?
Maldonado: Mira Andreva vs. Alicia Parks under 19.5 games in the first round (-115). Parks has a big serve but struggles with consistency, stacking double faults and handing out free points. Meanwhile, Andreeva is one of the most efficient young players on the tour. She redirects the pace well, gains momentum through long gatherings and punishes second serve. On the US Open Hard Court, Andreva has the ability to absorb and counter the park’s power. If Andreeva directed early, this is simple, something like 6-3, 6-2, and Parks struggles to be consistently useful.
Smell: American women to win (+280). According to ESPN BET, five of the 11 players with the shortest odds to win the championship are Americans. Gauff, who won her first major at the US Open in 2023 and her second major at the French Open this season, has the third shortest odds at +800. Keys (+1800) has the 7th best odds, 22-4 on hard court this season. Amanda Anisimova (+2200), Jessica Pegra (+2800) and Emma Navarro (+3300) rounded out the top 11. Anishimoba is a Wimbledon finalist and won the WTA 1000 tournament on the hard court at the Qatar Open this season. Pegra was a finalist at the US Open last year, while Navarro was a semi-finalist in the same tournament. All five have proven capabilities to compete. This doesn’t include other strong Americans like 2022 Australian open finalist Daniel Collins (+6600) and 2020 Australian open champion Sophia Kenin (+8000). Playing the numbers game gives Americans a solid chance to win in New York.
What is another bet that stands out on the boys’ side?
Maldonado: Joao Fonseca and Miomir Keccmanovic in the first round (+140). Kecmanovic has the advantage of his experience, especially on the hard court, and his compact baseline game and ability to absorb pace works well. Fonseca’s talent is clear, but he has yet to prove at this stage and tends to leak errors when extended at a rally. Kecmanovic’s flat ball remains low, and Fonseca is driven out of the strike zone. This is a faster surface key. If Kecmanovic keeps his first serve percentage solid and makes this physical, his edge of shot resistance and maturity in match could tilt this in his way.
Smell: Shelton as the most advanced American in the tournament (+260). Taylor Fritz has the shortest odds to get this prop (+170). Fritz is the fourth-placed and most seeded American, and was in the US Open Finals last year. But Shelton is worth noting. The young rookie with a vibrant serve plays the best tennis of his career. Shelton is a two-time Grand Slam semi-finalist, including the 2023 US Open and this year’s Australia Open. He is known for his big serves, but he has diversified his game this season, exploiting the angle with his strong left-handed forehand, showing his willingness to come to the net at every point in the match. Shelton has stood out on the hard court this season, finishing with a semifinal at the Australian Open as well as the ATP 1000 level Canadian Open in both the Cincinnati Open and Indian Wells. Shelton has a game and plays at the level necessary for a deep run.
Who is your favorite long shot bet to win a women’s title?
Maldonado: Chacas Paolini (+33300). Paolini has been combat-tested on the biggest stage in the two slam finals in 2024, and does not avoid big moments. Her game is translated better into hard court than she is given credit. She uses elite moves to high hopes and has the ability to turn defenses against larger batters into attack. Paolini’s serve isn’t that big, but her return game keeps her on set and thrives when the match gets physical. If the draw opens even a little, Paolini has consistency and mentality, allowing him to run deep.
Smell: Osaka (+1600). I thought strongly Gradually (+2000) At this spot, the 18-year-old Canadian won his first WTA Championship at the WTA 1000 Canadian Open, with four Grand Slam champions, including Osaka and Gouf, but Mboko has yet to have much experience along the way. However, Osaka is back to her career where she was once invincible on the hard court. Osaka won four hard court grand slams, including the 2018 and 2020 US Open before leaving tennis for maternity leave. Osaka has formed itself this year, marking a 16-6 record on hard courts. Her final at the Canadian Open has been her best finish at events above the WTA 1000 level since 2022, and she may have peaked just in time for the Grand Slam where she achieved the best historic results.
Who is your favorite long shot bet to win a men’s title?
Maldonado: Djokovic wins (+1200) Technically, it’s not a core play, but a valuable spray. He is still an elite, and no one matches his ability to turn matches into a tactical battle in the case of sinners and Alkaraz’s wobble. But at age 38, the two-week crushing of Best Fives calls for a big question, especially for the young and relentless baseliner. You bet more on the confusion that opens half of his draw than he is making everyone straight. Djokovic is not a headline in this number. The advantages lie there, but durability is a risk.
Smell: Djokovic. In an astonishing career, including a grand slam single title on Record 24, Djokovic has finally begun to show physical signs of wear over the past two years. With Sinner and Alcaraz winning the past seven Grand Slams, it’s easy to forget that Jjokovic won three of the four in 2023, including the US Open. Djokovic has to reach the semi-finals of all three majors this season, address health issues, withdraw from the Australian Open and step into the Wimbledon courthouse visible.
But if Djokovic can maintain his health throughout the tournament – he is still one player with a game that challenges sinners and Alkaraz. Djokovic, who will join as the seventh seed, could potentially face a fourth seed Fritz in the quarterfinals, Alkaraz in the semifinals and a criminal in the final. It’s a difficult draw and a big feat, but with long shot odds, Djokovic is healthy and earning a record 25th slam is worth seriously considering.
