Fourteen of the sixteen playoff spots in the NASCAR Cup Series have now been secured. Austin Dillon’s unexpected victory at Richmond marked him as the 14th different winner of the 2025 season. This win is reminiscent of his previous Richmond victory last year, where he crashed into Joey Logano on the final lap in an attempt to secure a playoff spot. Although Dillon officially won that race, NASCAR revoked his playoff eligibility, and he ultimately missed the postseason.
Dillon is the third driver to win in 2025 despite ranking outside the top 20 in points, joining Josh Berry, who won in Las Vegas while ranked 22nd, and Shane van Gisbergen, who dominated on a road course but has never cracked the top 10 on oval tracks. With Dillon’s playoff berth, just two spots remain before Saturday’s race at Daytona. If another winless driver claims the 15th win of the season, only one spot will be awarded based on the points standings.
Looking back to last year, Harrison Burton secured a surprising playoff spot with his only career Cup Series win at Daytona, a race marked by major crashes and seven cautions. Whether a similar shock happens in 2025 remains to be seen as the playoff race nears its conclusion. Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin are tied as favorites for the championship, while Bell follows closely behind. Van Gisbergen holds third place in playoff points but struggles on oval tracks, making him a long shot for the title.
Team Penske’s Blaney, Logano, and Cindric are top picks to win the upcoming Daytona race due to their skill on drafting tracks. Drivers like Tyler Reddick and Bowman, as well as any Penske driver or past winner, will be aiming for victory lane to secure their playoff spots. Those without wins, including Chris Buescher, John Hunter Nemechek, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr., must win at Daytona to advance.
Former champs Keselowski and Busch are considered the best bets among the undefeated to clinch a playoff berth. Busch, 16th in points, has only two top-five finishes this season, while Keselowski has shown some recent speed. If neither of them, Buescher, nor Ryan Preece wins on Saturday, the possibility looms that all three Roush-Fenway-Keselowski cars could miss the playoffs—something rare in typical seasons. Stenhouse and McDowell, both former Daytona 500 champions, may also contend late in the race. Meanwhile, Ty Dillon trails Ty Gibbs in the standings, but his chances of winning remain slim.
Fan Take: This unexpected shake-up in the playoff picture keeps NASCAR exciting and unpredictable, showing that a single win can change a driver’s entire season trajectory. For fans, it means every race counts, and the underdog stories are alive and well, preserving the high stakes and drama that make the sport captivating.
