There was a lot of excitement and anticipation after the Las Vegas Grand Prix, and with two McLarens disqualified, Max Verstappen moved closer to the championship lead, and the face-off in the final race changed dramatically.
I admit to being one of those buoyed by the idea of a three-way battle in Abu Dhabi and the thought of further danger being injected into the Qatar race weekend, where F1 grapples with a brutal triple-header to end the season. I’ll also admit that I was probably a little obsessed at first. Because the fact is that Lando Norris still had, and still has, a great chance to become world champion here on Sunday night.
Norris accomplished the first part of his job and secured third place in the sprint. A top seven finish will be enough to ensure that the title this weekend is completely in his hands. If Norris wins the Qatar GP, he will become champion.
I was lucky enough to interview Norris as he was walking to the car before the sprint and asked him about those permutations and the fact that he doesn’t need to be in front in a short race to have a title chance. The silence he took before responding felt like an eternity, as if he were calculating the scenario before pushing it out of his mind, and he said he was just focused on getting off to a good start. Norris, who tied for second on Sunday, maintained his stance and needed one spot to guarantee the championship.
“The long run to Turn 1 is a good opportunity for everyone to gain or lose positions,” Norris said. “Other than that, I think it will be a pretty boring and simple race.
“(The approach) is the same as every day. We’re second so we don’t have any chance of winning at the moment, but we just focus on getting a good start and that’s it.”
We’ve seen many tense Turn 1 scenarios before, but not so many between the trailing team starting from the pole and their teammates being the second-row invaders. Steven Tee/Getty Images
Oscar Piastri also fulfilled the first part of the task he had to fulfill. Norris is the driver you need to overtake to win.
Piastri entered the weekend with a 24-point lead but appears to be the biggest outsider in the title picture, having not achieved a top-three finish in any race or sprint since the end of the European season. He hadn’t been better than Norris in any session since Zandvoort, and momentum didn’t seem to be on his side.
However, from the start of FP1 he looked comfortable with the McLaren, turning his sprint pole into a third successive sprint win at the Lusail circuit, before taking his first pole position since the end of August.
“Everything was great all weekend,” Piastri said. “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. It was really good. The team did a great job. In Q2 we did a short lap on the used set so there was a bit of a question mark as to which tires we would use, but we didn’t expect it to be this good so we had a bit of a hard time working on it. But Q3 was really good with the new set so I’m very happy.”
“We’ll start from the best position and do our best. Let’s try a little more of what we did today in the sprint and see what we can do.”
Like Norris, Piastri knows that the most important part of a race is likely the first 10 seconds, the start as he comes off the line to maintain the lead going into turn one.
“I think the start is probably the biggest thing we need to get right tomorrow. I think we saw today with clean air, which is a big advantage around here. I think it’s going to be a pretty fast-paced race given the length of the stint, so that’s probably the biggest thing we need to get right. Still, a lot can happen.”
But perhaps in Piastri’s hands, it’s the 360-degree perspective Norris must take, not just figuratively as perhaps the championship leader with the most losses, but literally including the cars in front of and behind him.
Norris’ teammate is the carrot dangling in front of him, and he just needs to pass one more car to become world champion. But looming large in the mirror is Max Verstappen, who needs to outdo Norris and take his title hopes into the final round.
“I’ll try everything I can,” Verstappen said. “Start, turn 1, all around…”
2nd row. Never underestimate the tenacity that comes from behind McLaren’s front row lockout. he’s always there. Clive Mason/Getty Images
Perhaps it’s a typical answer from Verstappen, who tries to react openly and directly to the importance of the opening corner, but you know the defending champion won’t give up without a fight at any stage of the race. Verstappen appears to have a more competitive car at his disposal after the improvements made since Friday, but he is also well aware that the opening lap is his best chance to leapfrog Norris and maintain his title ambitions.
“It’s going to be tough,” said the Dutchman. “I mean, I tried in the sprint, but I’m stuck in a corner where I’m really struggling with the tires and I don’t think I’ll be able to catch up. Also, Oscar’s last lap in the sprint, he has to cut corners for that, so it might be a little bit better, but I think it’s going to be tough. We’ll see. It’s a long race. Anything can happen.”
“You never know what’s going to happen in a race. I think today’s sprint was pretty boring because the tires overheated and couldn’t keep up. And there’s also all these fast corners and high grip, so it’s very difficult to get close.”
“Tomorrow there will be more fuel in the car. The start is important, but after that you don’t know. You can be influenced by other cars in the race and it can ruin your race. It’s impossible to say now that tomorrow will be boring.”
No one ever said it was boring. Tense conditions, tires requiring maximum stint lengths and track limits with potential penalties mean drivers are unlikely to be able to relax at any stage.
But there’s a good chance the first lap will decide the race and, with it, the championship.
