The NFL has a way of knocking down teams that looked poised to rise — much like the recent snow that flattened many roofs — and that pattern showed again this season. The Washington Commanders serve as a prime example: after flirting with a Super Bowl run, they tumbled to a 5-12 finish in 2025 and now hold the seventh overall pick in the 2026 draft.
No team wants a slide like that, but every offseason includes clubs that regress because of injuries, bad luck or late-game breakdowns — 12 teams saw their seasons end in the 2026 postseason. For squads that squeaked by last year, such as the Bears, a few unfavorable bounces could be all it takes to flip the script. Meanwhile, a handful of franchises seem to find the playoffs repeatedly; Buffalo emerged as the AFC’s top seed and San Francisco has qualified in four of the last five seasons in the NFC.
Which of the playoff losers is best positioned to return to the Super Bowl next year? Below is a ranking from least to most likely.
12. Carolina Panthers
– 2025 record: 8-9 (1st in NFC South)
– 2026 opponents: Buccaneers, Falcons, Saints, Lions, Bears, Ravens, Bengals, Seahawks, Broncos, Vikings, Packers, Steelers, Browns, Eagles
Carolina’s 2025 story was one of the brighter narratives around the league, but repeating that success will be difficult. The Panthers’ 2026 slate is more daunting, including six clubs that reached the postseason last year. Much of their upside rests on Bryce Young taking another step forward and on adding a complement to Teal’c McMillan, who outgained the team’s next receiver by a wide margin.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers
– 2025 record: 10-7 (1st in AFC North)
– 2026 opponents: Ravens, Bengals, Browns, Falcons, Panthers, Broncos, Texans, Colts, Jaguars, Patriots, Saints, Eagles, Buccaneers, Titans
Pittsburgh’s streak of non-losing seasons under Mike Tomlin could be in jeopardy with Mike McCarthy taking over. The Steelers’ 2026 schedule features six previous playoff teams and a tough finish against Atlanta and New Orleans. The quarterback situation looms largest — an Aaron Rodgers return would help, but the AFC North figures to be even tougher if stars like Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow remain healthy.
10. Green Bay Packers
– 2025 record: 9-7-1 (2nd in NFC North)
– 2026 opponents: Bears, Lions, Vikings, Falcons, Bills, Panthers, Dolphins, Texans, Cowboys, Patriots, Saints, Jets, Buccaneers, Rams
Green Bay also faces Atlanta and New Orleans and lands six matchups with 2025 playoff teams. After a season that disappointed despite a strong start, questions swirled about Matt LaFleur before he received an extension. The Packers also dealt with key personnel losses and changes on defense, handing play-calling duties to Jonathan Gannon — continuity and health will matter.
9. Houston Texans
– 2025 record: 12-5 (2nd in AFC South)
– 2026 opponents: Colts, Jaguars, Titans, Ravens, Bengals, Bills, Cowboys, Giants, Browns, Steelers, Chargers, Eagles, Commanders, Packers
Houston rebounded from an 0-3 start to win 12 regular-season games, claimed its first-ever road playoff win, then fell in the divisional round. The defense was outstanding, but inconsistency from CJ Stroud in the postseason has been a recurring issue; unless Stroud becomes steadier in big games, Houston risks falling short next year.
8. Los Angeles Chargers
– 2025 record: 11-6 (2nd in AFC West)
– 2026 opponents: Broncos, Chiefs, Raiders, Bills, Dolphins, Ravens, Seahawks, Rams, Buccaneers, Browns, Packers, Vikings, Steelers
The Chargers opened 3-0 but injuries derailed their momentum, and they closed the regular season with three losses. Los Angeles shuffled offensive coordinators again, bringing in Mike McDaniel to try to help Justin Herbert finally take the next step in the playoffs.
7. Chicago Bears
– 2025 record: 11-6 (1st in NFC North)
– 2026 opponents: Lions, Packers, Vikings, Buccaneers, Eagles, Jaguars, Jets, Patriots, Saints, Bills, Dolphins, Falcons, Panthers, Seahawks
The Bears should brace for a tougher follow-up year: seven of their 2026 opponents made last season’s playoffs. Chicago’s 2025 success included eight one-possession wins fuelled by Caleb Williams’ late-game heroics and a turnover-hungry defense; however, defensive metrics and opponent completion rates exposed vulnerabilities. To avoid a sudden drop, the Bears need steadier play from Williams and improved consistency on defense.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars
– 2025 record: 13-4 (1st in AFC South)
– 2026 opponents: Texans, Colts, Titans, Browns, Steelers, Eagles, Commanders, Patriots, Ravens, Bengals, Cowboys, Giants, Bears, Broncos
On paper Jacksonville’s 2026 schedule looks manageable compared with many others — six playoff teams versus eight they faced this season. The bigger challenge is that the Jaguars won’t be a surprise anymore; defenses will prepare harder. Shoring up a secondary that struggled against the pass and improving their sack totals in the offseason will be key.
5. Buffalo Bills
– 2025 record: 12-5 (2nd in AFC East)
– 2026 opponents: Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, Chiefs, Chargers, Bears, Lions, Ravens, Broncos, Packers, Raiders, Vikings, Texans, Rams
Buffalo remains a legitimate Super Bowl contender on talent, and a new head coach will helm the team after Sean McDermott’s dismissal. Still, the Bills’ 2026 slate includes seven teams that reached the playoffs last year and some borderline clubs, making repetition uncertain. As with any team built around an elite quarterback, an injury to Josh Allen would be catastrophic to their title hopes.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
– 2025 record: 11-6 (1st in NFC East)
– 2026 opponents: Cowboys, Giants, Commanders, Cardinals, Panthers, Bears, Texans, Colts, Jaguars, Rams, Steelers, 49ers, Seahawks, Titans
Philadelphia has been in big games the past few years — Super Bowl in 2022, a down year in 2023, and a championship in 2024 — and a bounce-back seems plausible after a home playoff loss to San Francisco. The Eagles boast playmakers and a top-five scoring defense, but they’ll need better offensive cohesion to endure a rough 2026 schedule that includes seven playoff teams.
3. San Francisco 49ers
– 2025 record: 12-5 (3rd in NFC West)
– 2026 opponents: Cardinals, Rams, Seahawks, Broncos, Eagles, Raiders, Commanders, Vikings, Dolphins, Cowboys, Chiefs, Chargers, Giants, Falcons
San Francisco has elite talent and one of the league’s best coaches in Kyle Shanahan, but injuries have repeatedly tested the roster. Staying healthy and navigating a brutal division will likely determine whether the 49ers can sustain another deep playoff run.
2. Denver Broncos
– 2025 record: 14-3 (1st in AFC West)
– 2026 opponents: Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders, Bills, Dolphins, Rams, Seahawks, Jaguars, Patriots, Panthers, Jets, 49ers, Cardinals, Steelers
Denver came up just short in the AFC title game, with injuries playing a role in that outcome. The Broncos finished the year strong overall and posted one of the league’s best scoring defenses, but their 2026 slate is brutal — eight opponents reached the postseason in 2025. Upgrades at skill positions, especially running back given injury concerns, would improve their odds.
1. Los Angeles Rams
– 2025 record: 12-5 (2nd in NFC West)
– 2026 opponents: Seahawks, 49ers, Cardinals, Cowboys, Giants, Packers, Chiefs, Chargers, Bills, Eagles, Commanders, Buccaneers, Raiders, Broncos
Even after a narrow loss to Seattle, the Rams enter next season with momentum. Los Angeles led the NFL in scoring, ranked 10th in points allowed, and still has Sean McVay calling the shots. Keeping key assistants and managing the age and health of veteran leaders like Matthew Stafford will be priorities as they try to build on a very strong season.
Fan Take: These evaluations matter because they show how fragile success can be in the NFL — small injuries or a few adverse plays can flip a team’s trajectory overnight. For fans, this creates both excitement and anxiety heading into the offseason: roster moves, health and coaching changes over the next months will shape which clubs are real contenders and which will fade.
