As always, Jack Nicklaus’ Muirfield Village presents an incredibly tough test for the best on the PGA Tour in the 2026 Memorial Tournament. A firm, fast golf course with thick rough remains the formula for challenging the world’s best, and a sprinkling of strong wind gusts in the afternoon made Friday in Dublin, Ohio incredibly difficult.
Among the players struggling to meet this challenge is two-time defending champion Scottie Scheffler. The world No. 1 started the week with a 1-over 73 on Thursday, including a double-bogey after his caddy Ted Scott had a meltdown after falling into the water on the par-3 16th hole.
The situation did not improve much and the second round began. Scheffler was unable to get a birdie on the front nine, and after going two on on the par-5 fifth, he made par, including a shank from the bunker.
Scheffler only added to his stress as he suffered three consecutive bogeys from No. 8 to No. 10 as he made the turn. Before he knew it, he was at the 4-over cut line with eight holes left. As usual, Scheffler was able to steady the ship and made a late surge with three birdies in his final five holes to not only stay off the cut line but move into the top 20 and enter the weekend at 1 over.
The concern for Scheffler is that while he has increased his stroke numbers this week around the greens and with the putter, his iron play is among the worst in the field. Scheffler ranks 59th (out of 72 players) in strokes gained approach, has lost more than two strokes from the field, and the distance control that made him so dominant over the past two years at Muirfield Village hasn’t shown up so far to start the week.
A year ago, Scheffler erased a three-shot deficit going into the weekend to win by four, but he will need an even bigger weekend charge to become the first man to make a three-peat at the Memorial since Tiger Woods did it in 2001. Scheffler currently leads JT Poston by 10 strokes, and his 65 on Friday was truly remarkable considering the difficult conditions. For Scheffler to be a real threat, he will need to find a more consistent level with the irons, which we haven’t seen yet this week.
Scheffler wasn’t the only top player at Muirfield Village to suffer seizures throughout the first two days of play. Rory McIlroy also shot a 74 in the worst afternoon conditions to be in the T19 group at 1 over. He and Justin Thomas (+5) shared a somewhat mocking embrace on the 18th green after surviving a grueling day of golf. Like Thomas, Ludwig Oberg also increased his score in five overs after shooting a 78 on Friday, as Nicklaus’ masterpiece showed its teeth in the second round.
leader
1. JT Poston (-9)
Poston improved by nine strokes on Friday with a 7-under 65 to move into the sole lead heading into the weekend. Poston has long been one of the best putters on the PGA Tour, and he combined those qualities on the green Friday with a sensational ball-striking round that beat his best score of the day by four strokes. Maintaining that level over 72 holes at Muirfield Village is never easy, as we saw last year when Ben Griffin and Nick Taylor reached 7 under after 36 holes before stumbling a bit and being passed by Scheffler. The good news for Poston is that he made a significant difference from most of the field, with only four other players within six strokes heading into Saturday.
weekend candidates
2. Ryan Gerrard (-8)
3. Sam Barnes (-6)
4. Tommy Fleetwood (-4)
5. Eric Cole (-3)
T6. Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Windham Clark (-2)
T9. Alex Fitzpatrick, Aaron Rye, Shane Lowry (-1)
T19. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and 8 others (+1)
Gerrard held the lead for most of the morning until Poston forced him in, but the 26-year-old has improved since last week’s T10 finish at Colonial and is poised for the biggest win of his career. Sam Burns has shot 69s in both rounds so far, and if he can manage to do that over all four days, he will be the favorite to win on Sunday, even if he starts the weekend three shots behind.
Those two, along with Poston, will determine how many players have a chance on Sunday. Given Muirfield Village’s challenges, any of them, especially Poston and Gerald, could set the bar so high that no one else could reasonably reach it. But if they back up, as is often the case at Memorial, so many players will have a chance.
The difference between the big group of T19 and Tommy Fleetwood in 4th place at 4 under is just 5 strokes. That kind of move is certainly happening, and if the top trio starts to fall back, we could see a very exciting weekend. Cole suffered a heartbreaking playoff loss to Russell Henry last week, but like Alex Fitzpatrick, he is taking advantage of the chance to play in a major event while he is still in good form.
It’s no surprise that Cantley plays well at Muirfield Village considering he has won there twice, and he knows that consistent play and avoiding mistakes will be his number one job at Memorial. Schauffele is similarly a strong theoretical course that suits Muirfield Village, and he continues to play solidly this season as he looks for his first win in over a year. Clark, who won with a crazy low at TPC Craig Ranch two weeks ago, is playing well again on a completely different kind of golf course, which shows just how strong his game is at the moment.
Notable players who missed out
- Jordan Spieth (+6)
- Ben Griffin (+7)
- Lee Min Woo (+8)
- Akshay Bhatia (+9)
- Rickie Fowler (+17)
After entering the weekend tied for the top 50, 19 players from the 72-player field filled in early this week. Spieth got off to a great start Thursday with a 71, but everything went wrong in the second round Friday with a 79. Last year’s runner-up Griffin also missed the weekend after having a tough first two days, and Fowler had two days to forget as his best round was a 79.
Updated Memorial Tournament odds and picks
- JT Poston (2-1)
- Ryan Gerrard (3-1)
- Sam Burns (5-1)
- Tommy Fleetwood (19/2)
- Xander Schauffele (18-1)
- Scotty Scheffler (20-1)
- Patrick Cantlay (22-1)
Poston or Gerrard could absolutely run away and win, but it’s hard to invest at this low price when there’s so much golf left to play on tough courses. It’s hysterical that Scheffler has odds of 6th place with a 10 stroke lead. That’s because sportsbooks have no interest in paving the way for big prizes to those who try to set Scheffler on fire over the weekend. I’d much rather have Schauffele in the same range as guys who are playing a little better, closer to three shots to the lead. I’m a little concerned about Fleetwood’s ball-striking, and after 11 scrambles for par, Thursday’s 67 felt like smoke and mirrors, but if he can steady the ship he’s certainly within reach for his first win of the year.
