PARIS — After a shock tournament, Russia’s Mila Andreeva will face Poland’s Maja Chwalinska in the Roland Garros final on Saturday. This match will be one of the most unlikely championship matches in recent Grand Slam history.
For eighth-seeded Andreeva, this is a chance to show off the talent everyone noticed as a junior and become the first Russian to win here since Maria Sharapova won her second of two French Open titles in 2014.
Playing in just her third Grand Slam main draw, Chwalinska has a chance to make history by following in the footsteps of Emma Raducanu at the 2021 US Open, becoming the first qualifier to win the title and only the second qualifier to win a major.
Here’s how each woman could potentially come out on top Saturday.
Why Andreeva will win
experience. Andreeva has long been predicted as a future Grand Slam champion, and her progress over the past year has been very impressive.
The 19-year-old reached the semi-finals here two years ago and has had a great season on clay so far. Her total of 35 wins this year is more than anyone on the WTA Tour, and she showed nerve and class throughout the two weeks, coping well with the heat in the first week and the windy, cool conditions in the second.
I have let my emotions get the best of me in the past, but it’s still a work in progress. But while this will be her first Grand Slam final, she has been through the business end of big events several times. In the semi-finals she showed great composure to defeat Marta Kostyuk, ending the Ukrainian’s unbeaten record on clay with 17 points.
Andreeva’s serve has improved significantly over the past 12 months, her backhand down the line is tremendous and she is not intimidated by Chwalinska’s versatility. Because that’s also how she likes to play.
She had a strong clay season, winning in Linz, runner-up in Madrid, reaching the semi-finals in Stuttgart, and reaching the quarter-finals in Rome. And with Conchita Martinez in her corner, she has a champion to help her cope emotionally in big moments. Andreeva is sure to win multiple tournaments in the future. And this could be the first one.
Why Chwalinska will win
Simply because it looks like you’re playing in a dream.
When the tournament started, the left-hander wanted to be in the top 100. Being in the final means she’s in the top 20, and a win would put her in the top 15.
At 500-1 before arriving in the first round of qualifying, she was given no chance. But her versatility, tenacity, athleticism, and court skills were fun to watch for everyone but her opponents, who were constantly pushed out of position and dragged out of their comfort zones.
Her drop shot is great, especially considering she plays with two hands, and she reads the game incredibly well.
Szwarinska, who took time away from the sport early in her career to deal with her mental health, returned after a long break because she wanted to, not because anyone thought she should. As a result, she plays with a joy and freedom that no one else can match.
She didn’t seem nervous in her semi-final victory, but if she can handle the opportunity of reaching her first Grand Slam final in just her third Grand Slam tournament, she could create one of the biggest surprises in the sport’s history.
Who will win?
The person in charge is Andreva.
The Russian has experience, has gone deep into big tournaments and knows how to win titles. And she doesn’t care about the fact that Chwalinska throws in a moon ball. She will find a way to get the job done.
But this year’s French Open has proven that nothing can be predicted, and everything we’ve seen suggests that Chwarinska can do it if she’s physically okay after nine matches.
Her game is not based on power or batting, so nerves don’t affect her as badly as a nervous big hitter.
In the end, it depends on who handles this situation. And since Chwalinska really has nothing to lose, she might just do it, especially if Andreeva gets stressed as she collects ball after ball to which she has no right.
No one picked Chwarinska deep, but she is well deserving of the title.
