The 2026 U.S. Open will be held at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club on Long Island, New York, starting Thursday, June 18th. This will be the sixth time a major tournament has been held on a links course; the last time the U.S. Open was held at Shinnecock, Brooks Koepka (2018) won. Koepka is one of 10 previous winners of the 2026 U.S. Open, along with Windham Clark, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm.
However, a player who has yet to win this major tournament is Scottie Scheffler (+550), who is aiming for a career Grand Slam title, and has the top odds for the 2026 U.S. Open. Rory McIlroy (+1200) is the only golfer below +1300 available for PGA bets as he aims to become the 12th golfer to win seven major titles. Other candidates include Rahm (+1300), Tommy Fleetwood (+2000), and Ludvig Aberg (+2200). Before you finalize your 2026 U.S. Open contenders, be sure to check out the 2026 U.S. Open predictions and projected leaderboards from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
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Sports line unique golf gambling The model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulates every event on the PGA Tour 10,000 times. This same model was successful at a whopping 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters, which will be the fifth consecutive Masters, and last year’s PGA Championship and British Open Championship.
Now that the US Open is set to take place in 2026, the model has simulated the tournament 10,000 times and the results are surprising. Visit SportsLine now to see the predicted leaderboards.
2026 US Open Predictions for Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka
Pick one of the 2026 U.S. Open models: Brooks Koepka (+2500), who won the 2018 U.S. Open with Sinekook and is one of the 10 golfers with the lowest odds this year, was a huge failure and didn’t even crack the top 25. Koepka’s return season on the PGA Tour was uneven, with only one player finishing in the top 10 in the event despite playing against a weaker field due to his lack of contract eligibility. He also struggles both off the tee and on the green, as he ranks outside the top 100 of tour golfers in both driving accuracy percentage and strokes gained and putting.
Koepka has won five majors, but his recent performances make that seem like a long time ago. He has never finished in the top 10 in his past 12 major tournament appearances. The model doesn’t project Koepka anywhere near competing for another major championship this week, making him a player to avoid when betting on the U.S. Open.
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The model also locks in its prediction for Scheffler (+550), who would become the seventh player in the modern era to complete a career Grand Slam if he wins. His best finish in this major was a runner-up finish in 2022, and he has finished in the top seven in four of his last five U.S. Open appearances. Scheffler has finished in the top seven in six of the past seven majors, but he hasn’t been his typical dominant self in 2026.
Schaeffler had at least six wins in both 2024 and 2025, but just one this year. Still, he’s been in contention throughout the year, with half of his 12 tournaments finishing in the top three. Scheffler has never played at Sinekook before, and the last time he played the course for the first time in a major, he finished 14th at this year’s PGA Championship.
The model also looked at the odds (+1200) of McIlroy winning the U.S. Open twice since winning the U.S. Open 15 years ago in 2011. It was the Irishman’s first major win, the last time he missed the cut at the U.S. Open was in 2018 at Shinnecook. Historically, this was McIlroy’s weakest major tournament, with the most missed cuts (5) and the fewest ties for the lead. 5 seconds (4).
McIlroy ranks in the top five in SG: Total, SG: Tee-to-Green, and SG: Off-the-Tee, but ranks only 125th in Driving Accuracy Percentage. Shinnecock has wide fairways, but it’s still difficult because there’s 5 inches of thick rough surrounding the fairways. How McIlroy navigates the fairways with his less precise drives this year will go a long way in determining whether the Masters winner wins his second major of the year. See the complete U.S. Open predictions from the model here.
How to create a designated player for the 2026 US Open
The model also targets some long shots, including players with records over 30-1. Model pickups can only be seen here.
Who will win the 2026 U.S. Open, which long shot will shock the golf world, and where will Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy end up? Check out the 2026 U.S. Open odds below, then visit SportsLine to check out the prediction leaderboard. All of this from a model that has won 17 golf majors, including three in 2025, and five straight Masters.
2026 US Open odds, favorites
Get the complete 2026 US Open contenders, best bets and predictions here.
Odds from FanDuel (subject to change)
Scotty Scheffler +550
Rory McIlroy +1200
Jon Rahm +1300
Tommy Fleetwood +2000
Xander Schauffele +2000
Ludwig Oberg +2200
Bryson DeChambeau +2200
Cameron Young +2200
Brooks Koepka +2500
Matt Fitzpatrick +2700
Collin Morikawa +3500
Sam Barnes +3500
Justin Rose +4000
Tyrrell Hatton +4000
Russell Henry +4000
Wyndham Clark +4000
Justin Thomas +4000
Kim Si Woo +4500
Chris Gottarp +5000
Viktor Hovland +5000
Patrick Cantlay +5500
Patrick Reed +5500
Hideki Matsuyama +5500
Robert McIntyre +6000
Shane Lowry +6000
Jordan Spieth +6500
JJ Spahn +6500
Joaquin Niemann +7000
Lee Min Woo +8000
Ben Griffin +8000
Jake Knapp +10000
Akshay Bhatia +10000
Aaron Rai +10000
Harris English +10000
Alex Fitzpatrick +10000
Maverick McNeely +10000
Cameron Smith +10000
Gary Woodland +10000
Ryan Gerald +10000
Nikolai Hojgaard +10000
Adam Scott +10000
Jackson Koibun +10000
Christopher Reitan +10000
Sepp Straka +10000
Kurt Kitayama +10000
Alex Noren+10000
