The level of tennis that Novak Djokovic continues to reach with each Grand Slam is astounding. Now, at 39 years old, he continues to compete, rack up incredible wins, and finds himself in a position to accomplish something no one could have imagined when he reached his first Wimbledon semi-final in 2007.
But as of Friday afternoon, the chapter in Djokovic’s career in which he could realistically seek a 25th major title is over.
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That won’t happen.
Jannik Sinner’s crushing, narrow 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 victory over Djokovic in the semifinals wasn’t necessarily due to the matchup or the differences between them as tennis players. Rather, it felt like a reflection of the challenge Djokovic faces at every Grand Slam.
Djokovic is still a great tennis player. He also no longer has the ability to win seven matches in a best-of-five set format without emptying his gas tank. And if he can’t get to the finish line at Wimbledon, where conditions are more favorable to him than at other tournaments, he won’t be able to get there anywhere.
it’s over.
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Remarkably, if Djokovic wants to continue competing and continuing his efforts off the court, it is clear that he can advance in big tournaments and beat most of the world’s best players. In the past seven majors, he has reached the semifinals six times despite playing in very few regular tour events. The level he can still produce is tremendous and we are lucky to still see him.
But a Grand Slam is not just a series of matches played in isolation against a set of opponents. In the end, adrenaline and willpower are all you need to cover up the accumulated damage during a two-week marathon.
Djokovic’s problem isn’t necessarily with Sinner, but the 24-year-old world No. 1, who plays for his fifth major title on Sunday, is certainly a major stumbling block. The bigger question is what is needed from Djokovic to reach Sinner?
Before the semi-finals, Djokovic took five hours and 15 minutes to beat Felix Auger-Aliassime, nearly three and a half hours to beat Romain Safiulin, more than three hours against Arthur Rinderknek and three hours and 12 minutes in his first round match against Wu Yibin.
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Of his first five matches, Djokovic only had one easy day at the office, defeating Stefanos Tsitsipas with three quick sets. And since this is a match on grass, the theory is that shorter points and less physical competition will allow Djokovic to be fresher for the inevitable matchup against the top seed.
But by the time Djokovic took center court against Sinner, the inefficiency in the early rounds had clearly taken its toll. Yes, Sinner is particularly sharp and looks poised to claim his second consecutive Wimbledon title against second-seeded Alexander Zverev in Sunday’s final. But Sinner’s only real threat was boredom, as he bullied Djokovic all over the court and didn’t concede a break point until the third set (which he quickly erased). There was nothing left for the opponent.
Winners Jannik Sinner (Italy) and Novak Djokovic (Serbia) embrace at the net after Sinner won in straight sets.
(Tim Clayton, via Getty Images)
And for Djokovic, the problem persists. In recent years, he has increasingly dropped sets to regular opponents early in Grand Slams. But all the time he spends on the court shaking off the rust and trying to play well in the early rounds has compounding interest in his chances of winning the tournament. The margin has become so thin that you can’t afford to have a long physical match with anyone before you get to Sinner.
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Oddly enough, it might actually be to Djokovic’s advantage to draw with Sinner, Zverev or Carlos Alcaraz in the rookie second round, with him still unseeded. However, his ranking makes that impossible as he continues to reach Grand Slam semi-finals.
We almost saw that theory at work this year in Australia when he stunned Sinner in the semi-finals. What is the difference from January? Djokovic benefited from a quarterfinal retirement, a bye in the round of 16, and a three-straight set win to start the tournament.
This proved that as long as Djokovic’s body remains intact, he can still excel on court, even against the best players in his prime. But taking so much rest during a Grand Slam is unusual, and as Djokovic approaches his 40th birthday, the trend is only going in one direction. Even if he can go deep on the draw, there are enough players now who can give him body blows, there’s no way he can get to Sinner, Alcaraz, or Zverev without doing some damage.
Whether it’s next month’s U.S. Open or next year’s majors, a roadmap of seven wins no longer seems possible.
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Djokovic may have internalized that reality. After losing to Alcaraz in the semifinals of last year’s US Open, he essentially admitted that he couldn’t have beaten any of the guys he faced in the same tournament in the best-of-five match (including Sinner). Alcaraz’s wrist injury this summer helped Djokovic avoid that possibility, but he still wasn’t that close to achieving it at Wimbledon.
But I hope Djokovic keeps playing anyway. He still has a lot of fight left and a lot to show, as his win over Auger-Aliassime in the quarterfinals showed. As he left Center Court on Friday, he smiled and took extra time thanking the crowd, which could perhaps be interpreted as a man unsure if he’ll be back next year.
Only Djokovic can decide whether fighting for the semifinals rather than the trophy is enough for him to continue winning. But after this Wimbledon, that’s the reality he has to consider.
