Two weeks ago, it seemed almost certain that the Ottawa Senators’ playoff hopes were slipping away. After losing significant leads against the Montreal Canadiens and Nashville Predators in quick succession, their chances of making the postseason felt slim. However, despite a subsequent disappointing defeat to the Carolina Hurricanes, the team’s recent form has reignited optimism, with the Senators winning five out of their last six games—including victories over Las Vegas, Colorado, New Jersey, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia. Following their win against the Flyers on Thursday night, they are now six points behind the second wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference, currently held by the Boston Bruins.
While their playoff probabilities hover around 40%, the real silver lining is that the Bruins face an even tougher remaining schedule. According to Tankasson, only the Pittsburgh Penguins have a more challenging slate than the Bruins. The Senators’ remaining opponents collectively have a scoring percentage of .586, compared to the Bruins’ slightly worse .573, putting Ottawa in a position where consistent wins could keep them in the hunt—regardless of the opponents’ strength. With just four games remaining before the trade deadline on March 6, GM Steve Staios faces a critical decision. Sportsnet’s Elliott Friedman suggests the Senators might pursue an aggressive approach, similar to how the Toronto Blue Jays acquired David Price despite some underlying concerns, focusing on improvements to their roster.
Ottawa’s advanced stats reveal a team that’s been competitive on many fronts. Heading into Thursday’s game, only the Avalanche, Lightning, and Hurricanes had higher five-on-five expected goals against percentages than Ottawa’s 54.41%. Moreover, their defensive metrics show they do a good job limiting shot volume and quality, which, coupled with strong underlying numbers, suggests that with better goaltending, they could turn their potential into a playoff run. Their current goaltending, however, is a significant weakness—the team’s save percentage stands at a dismal .868, the worst in the league, with prospects like Jesper Wohlstedt and Filip Gustafsson potentially available to address this issue.
On the defensive end, aging blueliner Nick Jensen has not returned to his pre-surgery effectiveness, and his recent performance metrics indicate a decline. With remaining games, the Senators may need to accept this reality and consider bolstering their defense, possibly by acquiring a steady right-handed defenseman like Colton Parayko, Mackenzie Weegar, or even a cheaper option such as Connor Murphy. Challenges remain, given the limited number of sellers ahead of the deadline and potentially steep prices for acquiring impactful defensemen. Overall, Staios’s task is balancing immediate playoff contention with future flexibility, especially considering contractual and organizational factors.
In summary, Ottawa’s season hinges on resolving goaltending issues and possibly making strategic moves on defense. If successful, they could find themselves as dangerous playoff opponents, despite their earlier struggles.
Fan Take: This story matters because it shows how close teams like Ottawa are to turning their seasons around, and that bold moves at the deadline could ignite a surprising playoff push. It also highlights the importance of smart management decisions in the high-stakes world of hockey—whether that means trading future assets or trusting young prospects to step up.
