NEW YORK – Former Champions Coco Gough and Osaka’s Naomi head straight into the blockbuster four-round matchup at the US Open on Monday night after booking their place in contrasting styles in the final 16.
Gouf cruised Poland’s Magdalena Frecci 6-3, 6-1, and Osaka passed Australia’s Dahlia Casatokina 6-0, 4-6, 6-3 to make the fourth major round for the first time since winning the Australian Open in 2021.
This was their sixth match in all, the first meeting at the US Open since 2019 – when Osaka defeated then 15-year-old Gauff 6-3, 6-0. Gouf won a comeback at the Australian Open in 2020 in his next match, traded off the next two. Most recently, Gauff moved forward in Beijing in 2024. This brought the overall record to 3-2 when Osaka retired with injuries on all sets.
It’s a vital match for both players. It’s Gauff’s chance to reach his third quarter in four years. For Osaka, it is the first time she has since become a mother to reestablish herself in the business end of her major.
1:29
Coco Gofu Cruise in a straight set wins with open
Magdalena Frech vs. Coco Gauff: Match Highlights
What Golfs have to do to win
One part is simple. If she serves well, she has a great chance to win.
No one has offered more double faults than her in the last three years. She has closed with 1,000 people since its launch in 2023. Her serve remains an ongoing job under the guidance of Gavin McMillan, who cured Alina Sabalenka’s serving Alivé Alis Sabalenka several years ago.
Gauff has been cutting her pace to get more first serves and remove pressure from her second serve. Osaka is an offensive returnee, so anything short is punished and in itself becomes pressure. But no one fights more hard than Gouf. She will fight to depend on it.
But even when she’s not serving well, Goff shows incredible resilience, and as she proves at the French Open, she can even win the slam when she’s not at her best.
1:35
Osaka Naomi wins in 3 sets at the US Open
Daria Kasatkina vs. Naomi Osaka: Match Highlights
What Osaka must do to win
Osaka has returned even better than Gauff so far in the tournament, averaging 83% of the ball, earning an average of 38% when returning first serve and 73% when returning second serve.
Osaka is attacked by a short one, so if she misses first serving, she writes about trouble for Goff. Her movements have improved significantly over the past few months, and her confidence has increased. When she is in a position to crack a forehand or backhand, she is a powerful danger and dominates the 0-4 shot category.
When Osaka is at her best, she is excellent at first strike tennis and if she ever hits the ball, she will have to have many opportunities to control the rally against Goff, whose counter-punch skills are tested.
What they say about each other
Gauff was like this in the 2019 US Open Match: result. “
Golf’s Osaka: “It’s difficult to play an American here, so can someone come and cheer me on? I see her like my sister, so it’s kind of cool to play here again. What happens?”
Who will win?
It’s strange that this match feels a bit like a toss-up, given that Osaka hasn’t reached the slam quarter since 2021. However, she is confident from reaching the final in Canada and is beginning to look like a woman with four grand slams in her name, but Gauff is still fighting herself while trying to fix her service action.
Aside from the previous meeting, a fast start is essential as when Osaka was injured after the second set, the player who won the first set won in four other clashes. Goff has the crowd on her side, which brings pressure on its own, but as Osaka is playing great tennis again, this threatens a kind of match that could cause real rivalry for the next few years.
Prediction: 3 sets to Osaka.
